"The illegal regime in Khankendi is doomed." Comments from Baku
Comments on Aliyev’s speech
After the speech of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in which he demanded in an ultimatum that the authorities of the unrecognized NKR surrender, the events around the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are stationed are developing rapidly. The authorities of the unrecognized republic turned to the international community with a request for help, skirmishes began between the Azerbaijani army and the Armenian armed forces in Karabakh. “The illegal regime in Khankendi is doomed,” says a political observer, commenting on Aliyev’s speech.
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What will the aggravation in Karabakh lead to, and how can the conflict between official Baku and the unrecognized regime in Khankendi (Stepanakert) be resolved?
Haji Namazov, political observer:
“In Ilham Aliyev’s rather harsh speech, one can clearly see an ultimatum to the leadership of the illegal and unrecognized regime in Khankendi.
I dare to suggest that the words of the President of Azerbaijan did not come as a surprise to the very top of this regime. Perhaps they even know the deadline, because behind-the-scenes communication between Baku and Khankendi is activated if necessary.
Two days after Aliyev’s speech, events around the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed are developing rapidly. There have already been reports of skirmishes between illegal armed groups and the Azerbaijani army.
The forces are absolutely not equal, there is no need to even talk about something. The ways to replenish the stocks of weapons of the Karabakh Armenians are closed. Under the “other scenario” that Aliyev hinted at in his speech, the illegal regime in Khankendi is doomed.
But with all this, Arayik Harutyunyan, who has been prosecuted in Azerbaijan since 2020 under the most serious articles, and his entourage are trying to grab at straws. One statement follows another, and basically these statements are addressed to the world community, which, by its habit, can only “condemn” what is happening in different parts of the world.
It is also noteworthy that in recent years, Aliyev has been doing almost everything he talks about. More precisely, he talks only about what is already planned and, in theory, brought to its logical end. And here I would not make optimistic plans if I were the Karabakh Armenians, taking into account the fact that Yerevan has practically renounced the “Karabakh problem”.
As for my forecasts of events around the leaders of the Armenian population of Karabakh, if the outcome is better, they will ask official Baku for a new meeting in order to dot all i’s. Everyone probably knows about the worst-case scenario.”
Farhad Mammadov, political scientist:
“President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev noted in Lachin that “messages are coming about what will be the fate of the leadership of the Armenians of Karabakh ?!”
Two important points:
- Who is this message coming from? From Russia or the West (USA, EU)?
- and the messages are only about leadership, not about the population!
That is, at least one of the mediators has a clear understanding that Azerbaijan will not deviate from the path of full reintegration of the region.
And if they, the mediators, ask this, it means that the “leaders” of the Karabakh Armenians themselves are interested in this.
President Ilham Aliyev made it clear that an amnesty was possible and presented the conditions. Now it’s up to the mediators who must convey this message to the “leadership” of the Armenians of Karabakh.
As for the civilian population of Karabakh itself, it seems that no one cares about them … except for Azerbaijan, which offers them citizenship, offers them to get out of the shackles of the military dictatorship of Arayik and Co., not to be a bargaining chip for the geopolitical interests of Russia, France, Iran and individual circles in the USA … After all, it will be more painful for them!”
