"Don't tease Russia": Analysts on the small steps policy of the Armenian authorities
Relations with Russia
The policy of the Armenian authorities amidst the changing world order is not fully understood both within the country and abroad. It seems that external actors expect more definitive positioning from the country’s leadership. However, Nikol Pashinyan prefers caution, despite his regular pointed statements towards Russia.
The lack of decisive steps to exit Russian integration structures and to distance from Russia is declared by some Armenian experts as a waiting tactic. They justify this pause with the desire of the Armenian authorities to remain in demand in the new, changing world order. However, there is also an opinion that teasing Moscow is impractical, which defines the “small steps” policy of Pashinyan’s team.
Comments by political scientist Andrias Gukasyan and analyst Ovsep Khurshudyan on the position of the Armenian authorities on this issue.
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Andrias Gukasyan, political scientist
Wait-and-see position
“The US Congress is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach. Alexey Navalny’s wife, Yulia, stated that in a month she will be ready to name the reasons that prompted the Russian leadership to kill Navalny.
It creates the impression that some major event is brewing, which might change the situation in Russia. And this is affecting the current policy of Armenia.
In particular, it is evident that Nikol Pashinyan wants to maintain the possibility that, in the case of such changes, he can survive them, retain power, and remain in demand under the new circumstances.
The authorities are waiting to be able at the right moment, when others will make decisions for them, to appear capable and adapt to the new system.”
Nothing can be ruled out
“Currently, nothing is happening. De jure, Armenia has not suspended its participation in the pro-Russian military bloc CSTO. There are no decisions on this matter, but it is discussed as though such a decision has been made.
The prime minister of Armenia stated in an interview with France24: ‘Practically, Armenia’s participation in the Collective security treaty organization is essentially frozen.’
In anticipation of significant changes, it’s not just the Armenian authorities waiting. It’s hard to say exactly what they are waiting for, but everyone is anticipating something.
The EU High representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell, even set a timeframe – 3 months, which, in his opinion, will radically change the situation on the Ukrainian front, of course, in favor of Ukraine. There is a certain element of expectation for some changes in the air.
If there are changes in Russia’s position, then, accordingly, Moscow’s policy in the South Caucasus will also undergo significant changes.
Nothing can be ruled out. For instance, no one could have predicted the collapse of the USSR.”
Ovsep Khurshudyan, analyst
Small but decisive steps
“I wouldn’t say that the Armenian authorities are avoiding decisive steps. Currently, for example, there is an ongoing process of deepening cooperation with NATO countries in the security sphere.
In addition, efforts are underway to expel FSB border guards from the Zvartnots airport as soon as possible, who are there on an illegal basis. Legislative action is required for the FSB to be present at the airport. There isn’t any. Russian border guards are here only according to the order of the Armenian national security service. Their presence here is illegal.
These are small steps so far, but the direction is correct.”
Significant statements by the French minister of defense
“The French minister of defense, Sebastien Lecornu, recently made an important statement that France will continue its military cooperation with Armenia. He also said that, if necessary, France will not limit itself in supplying short, medium, and long-range missiles.
There is an institutional integration and adjustment between the two defense systems. Our army still follows Soviet military methods and combat tactics. The structure itself is also still Soviet. All this needs to be institutionally changed to ensure effective interaction with the French army, France’s defense system, and its military industry.
The minister’s statement on technology was also interesting. He emphasized that France produces its own weapons and develops technologies. France can also support Armenia in terms of technology.
Armenia is capable of managing such risks to ensure that Western weapons and technologies do not fall into the wrong hands, particularly Russia’s. The presence of French representatives in our army, overseeing institutional reforms and collaborating with Armenian military industrial enterprises, also inspires confidence in this regard.”
Rejecting the “Trojan horse” services
The expansion of Russia’s presence on Armenian territory occurred after the 2020 war. Now, there is a trend and desire to reduce this presence.
The next step after removing the FSB from Zvartnots airport will be the withdrawal of mobile Russian units from the border with Azerbaijan, from the Armenian-Iranian border, and also from the border with Turkey. I am confident that Armenian society will demand the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base stationed in Gyumri. It is truly senseless and useless.
Regarding the withdrawal of the Russian base, no social surveys have been conducted, but the results of other studies show that the majority of the Armenian population considers Russia an enemy. And this is a sufficient basis to reject the services of a Trojan horse whose military presence on your territory is naturally directed against you.
Non-aligned status
The future of Armenia lies in NATO, but it’s unlikely that the country’s authorities will announce this now. At most, they would currently opt for a non-aligned status. I consider this acceptable as a transitional period.
Today, declaring intentions to join NATO would be too bold for Armenia and, possibly, incorrect. It’s not advisable to tease Russia, especially since countries do not join NATO immediately; a long path must be followed.
Once we meet the standards, I think NATO will accept us. NATO is a military-political organization, so reforms are needed in all areas: democracy, human rights, freedoms.
