Putin is expected to visit Azerbaijan's capital. Here's a comment from Baku
Putin to visit Azerbaijan
The Telegram channel BRIEF reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Baku on August 19. The source reports that preparations for the visit are currently underway.
One of the key topics of discussion during the visit may be the transportation of Russian gas.
Sources indicate that Moscow and Baku have been discussing this issue for several months, with Turkey acting as a guarantor of the deal.
In early July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg that Ukraine is exploring the possibility of transporting Azerbaijani gas to the EU through its territory following the end of its transit agreement with Gazprom later this year.
Recently, on August 6, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu visited Baku on a working trip. He arrived from Tehran, where he had also been on a business visit. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met Shoigu, who then met with Ramil Usubov, Secretary of the Security Council of Azerbaijan.
Shoigu reported that a wide range of issues were discussed, including security in the South Caucasus, the signing of a peace agreement with Armenia (the 10th edition of which was sent to Yerevan), and Western attempts to actively intervene in the process.
Shoigu also noted that transportation projects, including the North-South Corridor, were among the topics covered during his visit.
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Commentary
Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mamedov reviewed the current state of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan following Sergei Shoigu’s visit and the anticipated visit of Vladimir Putin to Baku.
How do Azerbaijan-Russia relations look today?
“Traditionally, Azerbaijan and Russia’s relations included political dialogue, security, economic cooperation, humanitarian work, and Russia’s role in the OSCE Minsk Group.
With the removal of the Russian military contingent from Azerbaijan, the issue of conflict resolution has receded. Russia now only participates in a trilateral intergovernmental commission on unlocking communications.
However, progress has stalled due to Armenia’s reluctance to grant Russia additional functions within its territory, and the Pashinyan government has not proposed solutions.
Baku and Moscow maintain a trusted relationship at the leadership level, with ongoing dialogue and mutual understanding on matters of political dialogue, security, and humanitarian cooperation.
Azerbaijan has remained consistent in its approach to relations with Russia. Compared to other countries in the region, Azerbaijan stands as Russia’s most predictable partner. At the very least, the Russian president can visit Baku.”
“The issue of gas exports is the most contentious”
“Economic ties between Russia and Azerbaijan show steady, organic growth in trade. Promising areas include the establishment of Russian manufacturing facilities in Azerbaijan, gas exports, and transportation.
Gas exports are the most contentious topic, with Baku accused of re-exporting Russian gas to Europe. However, after leaks in European media suggested that the EU is interested in exporting gas from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, it seems Europe is trying to legitimize this re-export, which hasn’t actually occurred.
This is a complex situation that requires careful consideration and implementation.”
The North-South Transport Corridor
“The North-South Transport Corridor is a critical issue, with no significant disagreements between Baku and Moscow on this matter.
The primary challenge lies on the Iranian side, but it seems Russia is managing to address the problematic aspects with Tehran.
Also, the China-Russia-Azerbaijan route, extending further south or west, could gain importance in the near future.”
Western activity in the region
“Geopolitical changes in the region need to be discussed. Neighboring countries of the South Caucasus are irritated by Western activity and, in turn, have become more active themselves. Baku has no interest in escalating tensions and will aim to maintain the situation within the bounds of competition rather than open confrontation.
On a global scale, topics such as Azerbaijan’s potential entry into BRICS, an elevated status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and, of course, COP29, are increasingly relevant.”
“Baku’s stance is accepted in both Moscow and Kyiv”
Alongside the broad agenda, the visit itself is of particular interest, especially amid Russia’s standoff with the West and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Azerbaijan’s position remains stable and consistent, garnering recognition from both Moscow and Kyiv.
Before the war in Ukraine, Baku served as a venue for meetings between Russian and US/NATO military officials. The Azerbaijani president is trusted by both Russian and Ukrainian leadership. In the current climate, discussions about dialogue between the sides may seem out of place. However, the ongoing actions on the frontline might be seen as efforts to strengthen positions for anticipated talks at the end of the year.”
In summary, the key principles guiding Azerbaijan’s foreign policy are:
- Avoiding dependence on third countries: Azerbaijan seeks to maintain its bilateral relationships independently of external influences.
- Consistency and predictability: The country aims to be reliable and stable in its diplomatic dealings.
- Non-use of territory against neighbors: Azerbaijan’s territory will not be utilized in ways that could harm its neighboring states.
