Opinion from Baku: how will the war in Ukraine end?

How will the Russo-Ukrainian war end?

The whole world has been closely following the developments in Ukraine over the past 12 days. Politicians and ordinary users of social media put forward different versions of the prospect of Russian military aggression against a neighboring country. Azerbaijani politician Natik Jafarli argues that political problems must be solved with a cold mind and describes his version of the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

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“Currently, the most “fashionable” topic in the world press is the discussion of the scenario for the completion of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, and the attempts of the Russian Federation to occupy this country.

Several times I called for discussion of this issue to be carry out without unnecessary emotions, with a sober head, leaving aside desires and hopes, and even addressed on some aspects myself, but let’s look at different scenarios again”, one of the leaders of the Azerbaijani opposition Republican Alternative Party wrote on his Facebook page.

“Many friends, famous people, some of those who call themselves politicians, put forward the thesis that Russia has already lost or will lose soon. Consider what the defeat of Russia means in the short term and in a military sense. What needs to happen to consider for this to become a clear defeat for the Kremlin:

— Will Russia withdraw from Crimea, the “DPR” and “LPR”, will it sign the act of surrender, or will the Ukrainian army capture Moscow? – No, it is impossible from a technical or military point of view.

— Will Russia stop the occupation if it cannot achieve most of its absurd demands? – No, the life of its soldiers means nothing to the Kremlin, Moscow has at its disposal a huge mass of zombified citizens who believe in the absurd “story” composed by it, this mass is many times larger in number than normal people, and therefore the imminent renunciation of hostilities due to the increase in the number of military deaths does not seem logical.

— Well, can tough Western sanctions slow down the Russian occupation? – Unfortunately, no, the enraged Kremlin will not stop the occupation in the near future because of the sanctions.

— Will Russia be stopped by complete isolation from the outside world? – No, this isolation, both now and in the short term, even plays into the hands of the Kremlin. The Russians are left face-to-face with the official campaign, the flow of alternative thoughts and news has seriously decreased.

And how can the war end if we understand that Russia will not lose in the short term? What Ukraine must agree to in order for Putin to save face:

— Ukraine renounces its claims to NATO membership. Zelensky’s harsh statements in recent days against the West and NATO are needed to prepare the domestic audience and the people for such a decision.

— Ukraine refuses to hold heavy weapons and announces its neutral status.

— Ukraine agrees with the determination of the fate of Crimea and the unrecognized “republics” of Donbass in the future. Figuratively speaking, an agreement is signed with obligations reminiscent of an agreement between China and Great Britain regarding Hong Kong. The whole world recognizes this treaty. In other words, Ukraine freezes its claims to the Crimea and the unrecognized “republics”, undertakes in writing never to resort to attempts to return these territories by force.

— Ukraine agrees to a land corridor between Crimea and the unrecognized “republics”, control over this road is given to Russia, and Kyiv also undertakes to supply water to Crimea.

If this happens, at first glance the situation will look like a defeat for Ukraine, but it is a victory in the medium and long term. In this way, Ukraine can turn into a new version of West Germany after the Second World War. Germany emerged from that war not only defeated, but also torn to pieces, practically destroyed as a country. East Germany was ceded to Russia, but in just 15-20 years the country turned into a model of the most developed economy in the world, and 44 years after the war it regained all the territories.

History and politics, especially the vision in the medium and long term, is a more serious issue, not liking an emotional approach, pathos and crazy decisions. Russia in the medium and long term is a defeated country. Even if it seems to be a “winner” at the moment, in just a few years the country will roll back into the Stone Age from an economic and technological point of view. It will also be forced to pay for most of the funds that will be required to restore Ukraine.

And the magnificent Ukrainian people will have a chance to become the new “West Germany”. If they skillfully take advantage of this chance, then in just a few years the country will turn into a role model of a prosperous state, and will become a center of attraction for all Slavic and Orthodox communities.

This battle, this war, Ukraine must win not with the help of weapons, but with its mind and vision – and it will win”, Jafarli said.