Op-ed: “Situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is developing according to Russian scenario”
The fate of Nagorno-Karabakh
In the part of Karabakh, where the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed, the authorities are completely subordinated to Moscow, Azerbaijani politician Igbal Agazade believes. According to him, if nothing changes, Russian passports will soon be distributed in this region, and everything will end in a scenario that we know from the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Only the outcome of the war in Ukraine can change the balance of power in the region, the leader of the Azerbaijani Party of Hope is sure.
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Azerbaijani politician, leader of the Party of Hope Iqbal Agazade believes that Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus distances Azerbaijan and Armenia from issues related to the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are stationed.
“No one talks about Nagorno-Karabakh”
“Please note that neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia have recently raised the issue of the future fate of the part of Karabakh that was under the control of Russian troops in the course of bilateral negotiations. One gets the impression that Russia has alienated both countries from resolving the issues of this tiny region.
Russia, as it were, left to Azerbaijan and Armenia the solution of border issues – delimitation. demarcation, etc. Nobody talks about Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a very dangerous trend”, Agazade said.
“So far everything is going according to the Kremlin’s scenario”
According to him, we have seen the solution to similar issues in Pridnestrovie, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia:
“What does the Kremlin want? It wants neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia to make claims to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Let’s face it: today Azerbaijan does not actually exercise its sovereign rights to Khankendi (Stepanakert), Agdere (Mardakert), Askeran, Khojavend (Martuni) and Khojaly. Although, according to international law, everyone recognizes that these are the territories of Azerbaijan.
Armenia is also far from regulating processes in these cities and regions of Karabakh.
Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia show sincerity in this matter. It seems that both sides are trying to bury it as deep as possible – as if such an issue does not exist, and is not relevant.
If things continue in this spirit, the issue will be decided in favor of Russia. Namely, they will start handing out Russian passports, hold some kind of referendum on the desire of the local population to live under Russian rule. So far, everything is moving towards this, according to the Kremlin’s scenario”.
“Power in Russia will soon change”
The solution to this problem within the framework of international law may come as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Azerbaijani politician is sure.
“If soon, even with the ongoing war in Ukraine, the countries of the region – Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and even Kazakhstan join the democratization on the European model, Azerbaijan will not be able to stay away from this.
So far, the Azerbaijani authorities do not dare to make direct contacts with the population of this part of Karabakh, because there are doubts about the results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
But for me personally, this is a predetermined question: the power in Russia will soon change. Putin will not be able to stay in power, and the process of liberalization will begin in this country.
Only after that it will be possible to talk about the real prospect of peace and cooperation between the countries of the South Caucasus region”, Igbal Agazadeh added in an interview with the Reaksiya TV YouTube channel.