"It can't go on like this for long." Comment from Baku
Situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
The situation in the part of Karabakh where the Russian peacekeeping forces are temporarily located remains tense. Trucks with essential goods remain on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s proposal to deliver everything necessary to the Armenian population of Karabakh along the Aghdam-Khankendi (Stepanakert) road is still being ignored by the Armenian side. Political observer Haji Namazov believes that the Armenian side can resolve this situation by turning directly to Azerbaijan. “Armenia relies solely on the virtual “international community” for the delivery of goods, which is in no way able to control the movement of transport through the territory of Azerbaijan, a sovereign state,” he says.
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Haji Namazov commented on the situation around the part of Karabakh where the Russian peacekeeping forces are temporarily located and the fate of the Armenian population living there:
“Tension on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia does not subside. With the part of Karabakh where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, or rather with the Armenian population of this region, nothing is clear yet.
Baku continues to insist that food and goods in Khankendi and surrounding settlements be transported from Azerbaijan via the Aghdam-Khankendi road, and Yerevan still keeps 24 trucks on the border with a neighboring country in the hope of delivering essential goods to Karabakh.
At the same time, based on official reports, Armenia relies solely on the virtual “international community” for the delivery of these goods, which is in no way able to control the movement of transport through the territory of Azerbaijan, a sovereign state. And there are no reports of Yerevan turning to Baku on this issue. But only Azerbaijan can allow or not allow the import of anything into its territory. No international community can decree official Baku,” he says.
According to Haji Namazov, “as long as this situation does not move from a dead point, tension between the parties is growing in the “shootout” of messages from the Azerbaijani and Armenian defense ministries.”
“The number of reports on ceasefire violations sometimes reaches 5-6 per day. Moreover, this regime is being violated both on the actual border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and in Karabakh.”
The political observer believes that “it cannot go on like this for a long time”, and lists the reasons.
“Summer is coming to an end. In 2-3 months, snow will fall in Karabakh and cold weather will set in. This threatens to worsen the already unenviable position of the Armenian population of the region. On the other hand, it is not so easy to conduct military operations in this part of Azerbaijan in winter. And according to military experts, a counter-terrorist operation against illegal armed groups in Karabakh with the aim of completely destroying them may take up to two months.
Based on this, there is little time left for making one or another decision – at most until the end of September.”
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Haji Namazov answering the question “What is the most likely scenario for the development of events?” says:
“Of course, the most desirable is a peaceful way to resolve the issue. There is no other option here – the Karabakh Armenians must accept the conditions of Baku on integration, disband the illegal “state formations”. But the adoption of such a decision by someone will turn him overnight into an enemy of all Armenians. In this regard, I recall November 10, 2020, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a tripartite agreement to end the second Karabakh war, who knows where, and then did not appear at work for several days. In other words, such a decision can be made by someone from the leadership of the separatist regime, having fled from Karabakh in advance. But how feasible it is today, I don’t know.
The reason for the high likelihood of a military way to resolve the issue is the remoteness of Azerbaijan and Armenia from consensus on the acute topics of a peaceful settlement at the present time. Negotiations are suspended. If you notice, Pashinyan no longer talks about the belonging of Karabakh to Azerbaijan, because his bold performances were taken with hostility in Armenia, and he took a step back.
Official Baku is completely silent, and in recent days there has not been a single statement about the situation on the border and around Karabakh.
The discussion on the Lachin road in the UN Security Council heated up the situation even more, although it did not lead to anything worthwhile.
Therefore if in the coming days we do not hear statements from Khankendi or Yerevan about the inevitability of the integration of the Armenian population of Karabakh into the Azerbaijani society, I am afraid that we must be prepared for the worst of all possible options.”