Cool politics, warm market: Azerbaijan-Russia trade keeps growing in 2025
Azerbaijan-Russia trade
Although political relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have noticeably cooled in recent months, trade figures show the opposite trend: imports are rising sharply, while exports remain relatively weak, leaving a negative balance.
A string of incidents seemed likely to undermine trust between the two countries: the detention and deaths of Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, the downing of an AZAL plane by the Russian military in December 2024, and the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh. Baku has begun openly criticising Moscow.
Yet the trade data shared by economist Toghrul Mashalli on his Telegram channel paint a different picture.
According to the data, bilateral trade in 2024 reached $4.8bn, with $3.62bn in imports and $1.18bn in exports. The trade deficit – imports exceeding exports – stood at $2.44bn.
The figures for the first half of 2025 confirm the continued growth. Turnover amounted to $2.52bn, up 16.3% on the same period last year. Imports rose 19.9% to $1.93bn, while exports reached $590.5m, a 6.1% increase. As a result, the trade deficit widened by 27%.
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The structure of trade is also clear: Russia supplies Azerbaijan mainly with crude oil, fuel, gold, wheat, steel and other industrial raw materials. In return, Azerbaijan exports mostly agricultural products – tomatoes, persimmons, hazelnuts – as well as polymers. This underlines Azerbaijan’s reliance on energy and industrial goods for imports, and on agricultural and chemical products for exports.
The data suggest that political chill has not hindered the expansion of economic ties. But growth driven largely by imports has further worsened Azerbaijan’s trade balance. Analysts say this imbalance highlights the need for the country to diversify imports and broaden its export base.
Azerbaijan-Russia trade
