"Continued conflict helps Russia's presence in the region" - comment from Baku
Who is to blame for the escalation?
Overnight on September 13, 2022, clashes took place on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with heavy artillery. There are casualties on both sides.
Azerbaijan explains the actions of its military as an answer to provocations by Armenia and the desire to create a buffer zone along the border with Armenia to oppose provocations in the future. According to an Azerbaijani political scientist, continuation of the conflict guarantees Russian presence in the region.
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Immediately after the trilateral meeting of the President of the European Council Charles Michel, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan on August 31, 2022, ceasefire violations began on the border.
For twelve days since the beginning of September, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has reported daily violations of the ceasefire by Armenia. These reports have all been denied by the Armenian Defense Ministry.
On the night of September 13, active hostilities began on the border with the use of heavy artillery. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced a retaliatory strike against large-scale provocations by Armenia.
After the first statement by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan about the start of hostilities, pro-government Azerbaijani publications published its stance on the need to create a “buffer zone” along the border.
“From the release of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, it seems logical that the only correct course of action is to create a buffer zone in border areas in order to completely neutralize the threat of provocations against the territory of Azerbaijan. We will consider this as indemnity for the thirty-year occupation and the damage caused, ” the Telegram channel of the caliber.az publication says.
There is as yet no official information about Azerbaijani losses. Independent sources claim fifteen dead. Armenia announced 49 dead, adding that “this figure is not final.”
On September 13, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held an operational meeting with the leadership of the country’s Armed Forces about “provocations committed by Armenia on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.”
According to Aliyev’s website, “relevant reports were presented at the meeting, and strategy concerning the prevention of provocations committed by the armed forces of Armenia on the border of the two states, the fulfillment of all relevant tasks and instructions was noted.
It was further noted that the responsibility for tension that has arisen lies entirely with the political leadership of Armenia, as the operational situation along the border is under the control of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.”
Who is to blame for the escalation?
According to political observer Shahin Jafarli, Armenia “remains a tool in the hands of Russia.” He noted that it is very easy for Russia to organize provocations on the border or in Karabakh with Armenia’s help.
“On the other hand, we must admit that local countermeasures on the part of Azerbaijan also meet the interests of Russia,” he added.
“As you know, in previous periods they turned a blind eye to our counterattacks, they did not interfere. It is clear that Russia will not want to allow Azerbaijan to take steps aimed at changing the situation in a strategic way (for example, taking Karabakh under full control and solving this issue for good).
“The provocative behavior of Armenia (I doubt a direct role of Pashinyan in this) and our responses to this guarantees the continuation of the conflict situation, and the continuation of the conflict guarantees the presence of Russia in the region.
“Because in this case it becomes impossible to sign a comprehensive peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia and end the long feud between the nations; wounds will not heal and continue to bleed, Europe’s mediation efforts will fail.
“The presence of Russia in Karabakh under the guise of a peacekeeping contingent is legitimized and the likelihood of their withdrawal therefrom in the near future is lessened.
“The whole world sees that Armenians and Azerbaijanis continue to kill each other and will not come to an agreement. The West is afraid of this and thinks that if not Russia, then Azerbaijan, together with Turkey, can destroy Armenia as a state and the Karabakh Armenians, and that the coexistence of Azerbaijanis and Armenians in Karabakh is impossible, so it is better for Russia to stay there.
“Unfortunately Russian policy, based on the principle of manipulation of the parties, is still effective, and the Armenians and Azeris just move in a vicious cycle with each other. And the end of this is not yet in sight,” Jafarli noted on his Facebook page.
Who is to blame for the escalation?
