Map changes, skirmishes, new prisoners in Karabakh: what's going on? –Commentary from Baku

Military combat in Karabakh was supposed to come to an end on November 10 after a trilateral truce was signed by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

However, in recent days, a number of mysterious events have been taking place in the region: changes have appeared on the maps of the deployment of peacekeeping forces provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense, clashes, sieges of villages, and the appearance of new prisoners are reported. But what is really going on?

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According to military observer Asaf Guliyev, the problem is that some experts incorrectly assess the signed document itself: “The document signed on November 10 is a statement. But some experts interpret it as a big peace deal. This misguided approach raises questions in society.”

“According to the statement, the Azerbaijani army should stop where it was at the moment of signing the trilateral statement. However, another paragraph of the same document states that those who left their places of residence during the hostilities must return. It turns out that the Armenians are returning to the settlements under the control of the Azerbaijani army. It’s almost impossible,” the columnist told JAMnews.

According to him, these gaps in the signed document make both sides consider themselves right: “In this case, a confrontation arises. The confrontation increases the importance of the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region. Certain agreements are reached with the mediation of the Russians. But these agreements are concluded orally, and not through any legal documents. There is no assurance that oral agreements will not be violated. Changes on the maps are also associated with this.”

Asaf Guliyev also commented on the report on the capture of 160 Armenian soldiers: “There are no exact data on the 160 new prisoners yet. It is possible that such incidents will continue in the future. Because among the Armenians there are military and political forces that insist on resistance. Since Azerbaijan is conducting anti-terrorist operations in the region, arrests are inevitable.”

The commentator notes that at the heart of all these problems is only one problem: “There is one factor behind all this. The question is, why is there opposition observed in this direction? The matter concerns the safety of Shusha and the road to Shusha. The Armenian side wants to strengthen its positions in order to create constant threats to the security of Shusha and the road under construction, while the Azerbaijani side is taking preventive measures against these threats so as not to face problems in the future.”