Bombshell interview with Azerbaijani expert: "The threat of war is clear."
“The goal of Iran and Russia is to oust Turkey from at least two countries — one Syria, the other Azerbaijan,” Azerbaijani political observer and security expert Arastun Orujlu said in a recent bombshell interview. In his view, Iran and Russia failed to achieve acceptable results during the meeting in Tehran. “In fact, this means the exhaustion of diplomatic efforts,” Orujlu asserts. “The threat of war is clear,” he added.
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“Russia forming sabotage groups”
Azerbaijani political observer and security expert Arastun Orujlu gave an interview to Turan News Agency, in which he shared information about Russia allegedly forming sabotage groups to destabilize the regional situation.
“Diversionary groups against Azerbaijan are being formed in neighboring countries. This statement is not based on rumor. I have reliable information about this. I even have information as to who is involved in it, and which former high-ranking Azeri military were recruited in the guise of Russian Azerbaijani diaspora activities,” Orujlu said.
According to Orujlu, there is confirmed information about a youth training network spanning Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
“More or less what happened in Kazakhstan”
Arastun Orujlu noted that the purpose of sabotage groups is to destabilize the country:
“Their task is to direct socio-political processes in a direction serving their state or para-state masters. At the same time, their task is to create confrontation in society, subversion. More or less what happened in Kazakhstan.
“This strategy was used in Kazakhstan in January of this year. Under the cover of social demands, rebel groups suddenly appeared, and this was not by chance. Ultimately they created a situation which forced Kazakhstan to turn to Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and ask them to send troops to maintain stability and power in the country.
“The intentions and plans behind this can only be guessed at. I don’t want to make assumptions. However, the prompt reaction by Russia and the CSTO showed that they’d been preparing for this situation. They can do the same in Azerbaijan.”
“Azerbaijani authorities are aware of this”
Orujlu has no doubt that the authorities are aware of what is happening, and Baku is attempting to counter the threat by various means.
“At least, the behavior of the Azerbaijani authorities shows that they have such information. How effective their measures turn out to be is another topic.
“For example, explaining the closure of land borders as the threat of COVID is unserious. In fact, the goal here is to prevent such sabotage groups from entering the country. But this is ineffective, because the closure of land borders leads to an increase in tension within the country. And the states that manage and direct these saboteurs can take advantage of this increased tension at the expense of the nation,” Orujlu said.
“The threat of war is clear”
The political observer noted that the threat of war in the region is unmistakeable.
“After the meeting in Tehran, it became clear that Iran and Russia, on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, cannot come to an agreement. Because Iran and Russia’s goal is to oust Turkey from at least two regions. One of them is Syria, and the other is Azerbaijan. This didn’t work either. In fact, this means the exhaustion of diplomatic efforts.
“What is more, we saw that after the meeting in Tehran, or on the eve of it, the head of Russian foreign intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin, visited Armenia and Azerbaijan. His visit to Azerbaijan was, to put it mildly, very strange. Although he held a press conference, media close to the government barely covered the visit. There were reports about him only on some sites and resources related to Russia.
“In politics, diplomats work first, then politicians, then intelligence officers, and then the army comes and joins the process. In my opinion, the first three resources have already been exhausted.”
Things are moving in the direction of military confrontation, Orujlu argues:
“There is a threat, but this doesn’t mean that there will definitely be war. Azerbaijan is not alone. Turkey and Azerbaijan have signed an agreement on cooperation in military and security. The Shusha Declaration is a very comprehensive document. It has been ratified and is legally binding. In any case, it is important not to lose vigilance. You have to be ready for any situation.”
“Anything is possible in Azerbaijan”
At the end of his extensive interview, the security expert emphasized that anything is possible in Azerbaijan.
“It is possible to violate internal stability and commit subversive actions for this purpose. For example, starting from the attempted murder of individual politicians, journalists, well-known public and political figures, to movements that begin with social demands, and then turn into riots. Agitation is also possible on the Karabakh front,” he said.
At the end of the interview, Arastun Orujlu outlined a path to avoiding tragic outcomes.
“The only way to avoid this is first to stabilize the socio-political situation inside the country. This is done not by arrests and repressions, but by achieving civil understanding. So far, there are no such initiatives on the part of the authorities. It is not apparent among the opposition either. Because the government has its own approach and even has its own opposition. This is irrational. The initiative here should be taken by the government, but, as I said, it does not look like this will happen. Unfortunately, this increases the risk, ”added the observer.
