"Azerbaijan and Armenia have entered another phase of contradiction." Opinion from Baku
Contradictions between Azerbaijan and Armenia
“Ilham Aliyev‘s statement of November 8 in Shusha is reminiscent of previous statements he has madeboth on the eve of the 44-day war and before the local military operations of 2021 and 2022 “to force Armenia to peace,” Mehman Aliyev, head of the Turan Azerbaijani news agency, said. “Our patience is not unlimited, and I want to warn once again that if this obligation is not fulfilled, Azerbaijan will take the necessary steps,” the President of Azerbaijan said in his speech on Victory Day in the second Karabakh war.
- Russia is not interested in a resolution of the conflict. Comment from Baku
- Armenia and Azerbaijan peace treaty in Tbilisi: is it possible?
- “Staying with Russia is a greater risk for Armenia than alliance with the US.” Opinion
Mehman Aliyev believes that the latest developments in the process of resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia may provoke another military confrontation.
“Negotiation process coming to a standstill”
“At a time when Azerbaijan was celebrating the second anniversary of the liberation of the sacred city of Shusha in Karabakh for Azerbaijanis and victory in the war to de-occupy the regions occupied in the past by Armenia, the foreign ministers of the two warring South Caucasian countries continued peace talks in Washington as part of the long-term relay race Brussels-Moscow- Washington,” Mehman Aliyev recalls.
In his opinion, the press release of the State Department underestimated the hope for an early peace settlement, which was announced in the final statement of President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after the Prague meeting of October 6th.
“In Prague, Armenia, like Azerbaijan, agreed to follow the spirit of the UN resolution on recognizing the independence of the former Soviet republics within their borders and the Almaty agreement of December 1991 on the denunciation of the treaty establishing the USSR, and recognizing the territorial integrity of the newly independent states as they existed then in their administrative boundaries.
The Washington press statement carefully, diplomatically emphasizes that ‘the ministers exchanged views on the elements of a possible peace treaty, noting that a number of issues remain to be resolved.’ The term ‘possible’, framed by the wording ‘there are still a number of issues that need to be resolved’, means that the negotiation process is reaching a dead end,” the journalist said.
“Azerbaijan and Armenia have entered another phase of contradiction”
Mehman Aliyev believes that Azerbaijan and Armenia have entered another phase of contradiction, “when Baku is seekingto conclude a large peace agreement as soon as possible and thereby fix the existing status quo, and Yerevan tries to delay the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, which, in fact, may mean recognition of the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh within Azerbaijan. And this will mean a complete fiasco of the 35-year-old political and military battle of Armenians for Karabakh.”
“A week before the Washington talks, just before the meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Putin’s Sochi residence, Yerevan, relying on the support of its centuries-old overlord, proposed to maintain Russia’s military presence in Karabakh for 20 years instead of the three remaining and provided for according to the statement of November 10, 2020 . And in Khankendi [Armenian: Stepanakert – JAMnews] the Armenians staged to a biased rally, inviting Russia to restore the former vassalage of the South Caucasus region. The gifts of the Armenians were ignored by the Kremlin.
Washington’s actions do not bode well for resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which has become a victim of its own inexorable policy. It is trying to maintain the same line of conduct, despite the fact that it is losing its former support from the West and Russia, which, in the presence of serious contradictions, and especially on Ukraine, still demonstrate unity of views on the conditions for achieving peace, stipulated in the statement on November 10, 2020.”
“This could provoke another military confrontation”
According to Mehman Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan received carte blanche to restore the country’s territorial integrity from leading international mediators.
“Aliyev said in Shusha that revanchist forces are rising in Armenia, unwilling to accept the outcome of the war. He accused Armenia of not fulfilling the agreement of November 10, 2020 until the end, not completely withdrawing its armed forces from Karabakh, and not opening the Zangezur corridor.
His declaration that ‘Our patience is not unlimited, and I want to warn once again that if this obligation is not fulfilled, Azerbaijan will take the necessary steps,’ recalls in spirit the previous statements he made both on the eve of the 44-day war and before conducting local military operations. 2021 and 2022 to force Armenia to peace.
It is unlikely that the next meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, which should take place before the end of November, will form the text of the final peace treaty. There are no signals from Armenian society about this. And this can provoke another military confrontation, which is likely in the absence of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty,” Mehman Aliyev concluded.