"Belated response": on Armenia's freezing of participation in the Russian-led CSTO bloc
Armenia’s Participation in the CSTO
“Practically, Armenia‘s participation in the Collective security treaty organization (CSTO) is essentially frozen,” stated Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan in an interview with France24.
In response, the CSTO secretariat stated, “To date, no statements from Yerevan about suspending membership in the CSTO have been received.”
Pashinyan’s reaction is seen as a response to Russia’s “inept policy,” according to political analyst Gurgen Simonyan. He believes it is a “belated response.” Simonyan suggests that Armenia’s reaction is linked to the end of winter and does not rule out potential retaliatory measures from Russia.
He speculates that Armenian authorities have taken into account the possibility of retaliatory steps from Russia, including the possibility of “problems with the gas pipeline” through which Russian gas is supplied to Armenia.
The political analyst suggests that Moscow may resort to various means in response, including potentially instigating military escalation via Azerbaijan. While the West is holding back Baku for now, it is unclear how long this will continue, says to Simonyan.
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“The CSTO has not fulfilled its obligations towards Armenia”
In an interview with France24, Pashinyan also discussed why “Armenia’s participation in the CSTO is essentially frozen”:
“In my assessment, the CSTO has not fulfilled its obligations towards Armenia regarding security provisions, particularly in 2021 and 2022. And this could not go without consequences.”
Regarding the Russian military base stationed in Armenia, he stated that it is not related to the military-political bloc of the CSTO:
“The base located on the territory of the Republic of Armenia is not under the framework of this treaty. In fact, it is under a different treaty, and we are not discussing it at the moment.”
Earlier, there were reports in the media that Armenian authorities might expel Russian border guards from the Zvartnots international airport.
“This will happen soon. There is a political decision regarding this issue,” one of the local media outlets reports, citing a “high-ranking source.”
All of this is actively discussed in local media in terms of a potential shift from Armenia’s traditional pro-Russian foreign policy stance.
“No statements on the suspension of membership in the CSTO have been received”
Regarding the statement from Pashinyan, the CSTO Secretariat informed RIA Novosti that no statements from Yerevan regarding the suspension of membership had been received, commenting on Pashinyan’s statement:
“As for the thesis of freezing participation, apparently, it refers to the fact that the Republic of Armenia has not participated in a number of events held by the organization recently.”
Later, this issue was also addressed by the press secretary of the president of Russia, Dmitry Peskov. He stated that there are plans to “contact [Armenian] colleagues and clarify the meaning of these statements” regarding the freezing of membership in the CSTO.
Commentary
The reason for Pashinyan’s statements was not his visit to France but rather the Russian policy of recent years, according to political analyst Gurgen Simonyan. He emphasizes that Moscow systematically violated all bilateral military-political agreements and arrangements with Yerevan:
“This is merely a belated response to the inept policy that Russia has allowed itself towards Armenia.“
The analyst also reminds us that the current Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), led by Russia, does not recognize Armenia’s sovereign territory. For this reason, when Azerbaijani forces advanced into Armenian territory, members of the bloc ignored Armenia’s appeals for military assistance, says Simonyan. He is convinced that both the CSTO and other Russian integration structures are “only meant to serve Russia’s grand imperial plans.”
The political analyst explains that the CSTO charter does not include a provision for freezing or suspending membership.
Any member state can exit the CSTO, but it cannot suspend its membership. Therefore, the Armenian Prime Minister was referring to the factual freezing of the country’s participation in the bloc’s activities.
Pashinyan’s statement highlighted the current situation: Armenia makes membership payments but does not participate in meetings. The expert hopes that the statements from Armenian authorities will lead to concrete actions, both in terms of exiting the CSTO and withdrawing Russian border guards from Zvartnots Airport.
“The real exit will occur when Armenia finally notifies the CSTO of its cessation of membership in the military-political bloc,” he said.
The expert says that the only decisive step taken by the Armenian authorities was the ratification of the Rome statute. However, immediately after that, the prime minister attended an event within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), assumed the chairmanship of the organization, and “continued playing the game of complementarity.”
Simonyan believes that Pashinyan’s statement is also related to the intention to create a new security architecture for Armenia. Consequently, Yerevan is enhancing cooperation with Western countries, particularly the United States and France. Furthermore, the expert does not rule out future collaboration with Germany and the United Kingdom.
Commenting on Pashinyan’s statement regarding the “likelihood and realism of a new attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan,” the political analyst stated that this is simply an obvious reality. This includes Moscow’s involvement. In his opinion, Russia is deliberately moving towards this, without waiting for a pretext.
“Regardless of the model of behavior we demonstrate — whether we defend our country or adopt an ostrich-like policy — Russia will still go for it. The question is whether Aliyev will want to play the proxy role after Munich [the meeting between Pashinyan, Aliyev, and Scholz]. If he dares, then he will be completely affiliated and attached to the Russian ship.”
In an interview with France24, Pashinyan stated that while Azerbaijan diplomatically claims it has no intention to initiate military actions or seize Armenian territories, several facts, including the recent incident on the border, suggest that ‘Azerbaijan is actually preparing to attack Armenia.’
According to Simonyan, military actions had already been planned, but the West was able to suspend them and restrain Baku. The expert refers to the steps taken by Western partners, particularly the Munich meeting, as a “powerful deterrent.”
“Azerbaijan, however, will await the right geopolitical conditions to take this step [initiate military action]. Nevertheless, it will go for it anyway. Let’s see how long it can be restrained by this straitjacket“.
