Experts weigh in, reactions from media and social networking sites
Azerbaijan is actively discussing the events of it’s neighbor Armenia.
The recently elected PM Serzh Sargsyan has tendered his resignation after more than ten days of protests headed by opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan.
Azerbaijan is putting forward hypotheses about what might happen next in the neighboring state, and whether the events will have an effect on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
“The Armenian nation has liberated itself from the ‘Karabakh clan’, which has played the Karabakh card over the past 20 years, which has brought the country to isolation and deprived it of opportunities to participate in regional and international projects,” is one comment made by the Azerbaijani media on the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Tofiq Zulfuqarov said on Facebook that one cannot exclude the possibility that there will be an escalation of tension on the front lines of Karabakh.
“ ‘A suitcase without a handle is what they call Armenia in Russia. Now, Russia no longer needs Armenia. If realists from the Ter-Petrosyan circle come to power and the ‘novices’ try to strengthen their position by using populism, then war is inevitable. In order to discredit them, ‘advisors’ will offer them another option…” the diplomat said.
His opinions were mirrored by Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov on his Facebook page:
“I am afraid that the situation in Armenia will not become stable soon. Their protectors in the west and in Russia will praise ‘democratization’ in Armenia and will urge us to wait, to wait for a government to take form in Yerevan which will be able to take on the responsibility of negotiating for peace. But I agree with Tofiq Zulfuqarov: we need to clearly denote the time limit for beginning substantive negotiations. If they don’t begin by fall, we will have to extract the ‘Karabakh abscess’ by force.”
Political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu, who was invited to the studio of TV channel CBC, said that Serzh Sargsyan left the position of Prime Minister as the result of an ultimatum.
“The army began to go the way of the opposition. Sargsyan was given an ultimatum, and that’s why he resigned,” said Shahinoglu, noting that Sargsyan had also acted similarly while speaking with former PM Robert Kocharyon. In other words, with the help of the military, he forced him to convince Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan to leave his position.
As for further developments in Armenia, the political scientist said that the new authorities of Armenia have to understand that they must change their political direction: being enemies with Azerbaijan and Turkey is not in the country’s best interests.
“Russia’s silence and the fact that it did not interfere in these processes, nor did it instigate the fighting in Karabakh, gives us reason to believe that Russia is in the game, and that it might even be one of the organizers of this game. In Armenia, the situation is such that whoever will become the victor, must ensure that Russia’s interests are retained,” said political scientist Natiq Jafarli.
Azerbaijani Facebook users have also expressed their views on the events in Armenia:
“There are enormous celebrations going on in the streets of Yerevan: having cleverly planned to usurp power, Serzh Sargsyan is now resigning under pressure from the nation. Respect to those who get what they have the right to – a right which is given by God, the constitution and conscience. How wonderful it is when force, money, power, weapons and powerful patrons lose their power in front of the might of national anger,” wrote Rovshan Karimov.
Another said: “The opposition leader detained in Armenia – Nikol – is one of the most ferocious supporters of the Armenian occupation. He believes that Sargsyan was weak in respects to the Karabakh conflict, acting under the aegis of Russia. However, it is perfectly clear that if someone comes to power that is NOT from the Republican Party of Armenia, then Russia’s influence will dissipate, following the path of Georgia and Ukraine. With time, Russia will take our side rather than that of the Armenians (for Russia, the region of the Caucasus is strategically important). For that reason, this is probably to our benefit. The Armenians are getting excited too early.”
“I like the unity of [their] nation. Yes, they’re not our friends. But they accomplished something. Over the course of 10 days, the many thousands of people were able to overturn the government,” wrote Arzu Akhmedova.
“I always thought – and am still of the opinion – that Karabakh will be given to the more democratic country,” writes a Facebook user under the name of Dadash Saritorpaq. Another, Qasim Abdullayev, wrote: “Let the demonstrators win, because they’re for dignity and law … and so they’ll dutifully leave our legal lands.”
“Our [authorities] should be treated the same.”
“Now this is democracy … not what we have.”
“What are you happy about? Have [you] taken back Karabakh?”
“What’s the difference, another Armenian will take his place, they’re all the same.”