Warming between Georgia and Russia: fears and expectations in relation to Abkhazia

Abkhazia, Georgia, and Russia

In Abkhazia, that Georgia does not presently have a warlike posture is quite welcome, but the apparent warming between Georgia and Russia is alarming the Abkhazians.

Better to be safe?

Just in case, Abkhazia is testing its mobilization capabilities and preparing a concept for the reform of the armed forces, as announced on February 28 by Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shamba, referring to the precariousness of the situation both in the region as a whole and in Georgia itself. According to Shamba, peaceful life in Abkhazia depends on the internal political situation in Georgia.

“The current Georgian leadership is neutral towards Russia. Moreover, it is actively resisting the attempts of the Ukrainian authorities and their own opposition to open a second front against Russia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Shamba said.

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Shamba believes that this policy is pragmatic rather than “Russophilia”.

“However, who can say that as a result of current pressure, the Georgian leadership will not be replaced by anti-Russian radicals or will itself be forced to open a second front?” Shamba asks.

Strange restraint

If the Abkhazian authorities do not spell out the risks of Georgia’s drift away from the European Union towards Russia, then the local expert community does.

According to the co-director of the Center for Humanitarian Programs, Arda Inal-ip in Abkhazia, at least since February 24, 2022 they have been watching with concern the warming of Georgian-Russian relations:

“The restrained position of the Georgian authorities was surprising, because it did not fit into geopolitical priorities and principles voiced earlier. Then it became clear that the absence of coherent anti-war statements is not the result of confusion or fear of calling fire on oneself, but a manifestation of deeper processes of a strategic nature. I assume that the ongoing negotiations on the Karasin-Abashidze line have recently begun to be supplemented with new content. Or another process was created, taking place in a highly secret format.

More than once Russian politicians (Lavrov, Baburin and others) have voiced the idea that if Georgia returns to the bosom of Russia, the issue of Abkhazia can be resolved differently, taking into account Georgian interests.

Today, Abkhazians are asking themselves why the Georgian authorities were so eager to pass a law on foreign agents that they are even ready to risk the favor of the West and jeopardize stability within the country? Perhaps we are talking about the political status of Abkhazia?

Yes, Georgia did not open a second front despite Ukrainian urging, which caused great concern in Abkhazia. But, if the new decisions of the Georgian authorities indicate, if not a reversal, then a significant correction of a strategic nature, then Abkhazia fears that this may lead to a revision by Russia of its attitude towards the independent status of Abkhazia with all unpredictable, but in any case grave consequences .

“Find your place”

Political scientist Astmur Tania believes that there is no immediate threat of resumption of armed conflict:

“But one must take into account the dynamics of events in the Caucasus. The military operations in Karabakh showed that the status quo could be broken quite quickly. We must be prepared for this, which in itself is one of the guarantees that hostilities will not resume.”

Tania considers the warming between Georgia and Russia to be a positive process for Abkhazia, since it “rather postpones the prospect of resumption of conflict”:

“Therefore this trend suits Abkhazia. However, here it is important to be participants in processes taking place in the South Caucasus in order to find one’s own place as an independent player, to find a reasonable combination of one’s interests with the interests of other actors. At this stage, cooperation in the field of communications and transit seems promising. We have to start somewhere, otherwise we will remain in the state of spectator anxiously watching what is happening. By itself, threat prediction does not achieve anything if it is not backed up by adequate policies.”

But opposition politician Adgur Lagvilava believes that the emerging rapprochement between Moscow and Tbilisi is alarming:

“President of Abkhazia Aslan Bzhaniya and Foreign Minister Inal Ardzinba compliment the leadership of Georgia, listen carefully and do not object to Alexander Lukashenko, who proposes to glue Sukhum and Tbilisi together. All this causes me some anxiety. For example, the idea of a law on foreign agents appeared in Abkhazia and Georgia at the same time, and this suggests that some kind of regional agenda is being undertaken, in which no one considers us.”