Assassination plot against Nikol Pashinyan: real or hybrid threat?
Threat to assassinate Nikol Pashinyan
A video that circulated online a day earlier has sparked intense discussion in Armenia. The footage shows five masked men threatening Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with violence. They claim Pashinyan “gave up Artsakh and will answer for it”. The men appear armed and hold assault rifles. They speak in the Karabakh dialect and warn: “Nikol, we will kill you.”
The masked men also urged Armenians not to vote for PashinyThreat against Nikol Pashinyan: facts and comments. A video has appeared online showing five men threatening him with violence.an in the upcoming elections. This may suggest that the outcome of the parliamentary vote matters significantly to those behind the video.
The Investigative Committee has already opened a criminal case. The committee said the video contained “a threat and a real danger of murder”.
Pashinyan himself suggested that former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan were behind it. He also named Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan and Armenian entrepreneur Gagik Tsarukyan. Both seek the post of prime minister after the parliamentary elections. Pashinyan based his claims on similarities between the masked men’s statements and remarks previously made by those figures.
In response, Pashinyan threatened to “finish off” his political opponents and “bring them to their knees”.
Speaking about the masked men, the prime minister promised to find them and “finish them off — in the legal sense of the word”.
“Law enforcement officers will drag them face down across the asphalt and throw them into a correctional facility,” Pashinyan said.
Armenian experts believe the video aims to spread panic and increase tensions with Karabakh Armenians. Some also suggest the footage may not have been recorded in Armenia. They point to countries outside Armenia, including Russia.
One political analyst even described the incident as “a classic Russian operation”.
“Kremlin games will continue. Stay alert. They are trying to create division and turn us against one another. We should fight not against each other, but against the Kremlin’s three-headed puppets, who represent neither the people of Armenia nor the people of Artsakh,” political analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan wrote on social media.
He was referring to the “three-headed party of war”. This is the label that Nikol Pashinyan and members of his party use for the opposition Armenia Alliance, as well as the parties I Have Honor Alliance and Prosperous Armenia. They argue that the groups’ pro-Russian leaders — former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, along with businessman Gagik Tsarukyan — advocate revisiting or revising the peace process with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan and his allies say such a course would inevitably lead to war.
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Alleged murder plot: the criminal investigation
According to law enforcement authorities, unidentified individuals livestreamed a video containing threats against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Authorities said the threats posed a real danger to Pashinyan’s life because of his role as a state official, his political activities and his political views.
Officials also said that “hatred and intolerance” motivated these unlawful actions.
“Authorities opened a criminal case over allegations that a group planned a murder, committed computer sabotage and engaged in the illegal trafficking of weapons and ammunition.”
The Investigative Committee has begun preliminary investigations to identify those responsible.
‘Take off your masks — let me see who you are’: Pashinyan’s response
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published a video on his Facebook page titled: “A message to the masked punks.”
According to Pashinyan, the men in the video wore masks to appear as “tough guys”. He asked where they had been during the war. He appeared to refer to the 2020 44-day war in Karabakh.
Pashinyan suggested that once they removed their masks, it would become clear that they were deserters or may even have shot Armenian soldiers “in the back”.
“Look at these brats, look at these thugs. They are Rob’s [Robert Kocharyan], Tashir’s [Samvel Karapetyan], Serzhik’s [Serzh Sargsyan], Gago’s [Gagik Tsarukyan] brats.
I’m speaking directly to you: I will find you one by one and stuff your masks where they belong. And that’s not even mentioning the barrel of a gun. You thugs — take off your masks, come out, let me see who you are.
You will all bow down. You will kneel. I’ll bring Rob, Tashir, Gago and Serzh to their knees along with you,” Pashinyan said, while urging them to surrender to law enforcement authorities.
Opposition: ‘Pashinyan himself staged the assassination threat’
Opposition parties Prosperous Armenia and Wings of Unity condemned all calls for violence. However, their leaders suspect that someone created the video at the authorities’ direction.
Former ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, a candidate for prime minister in the upcoming elections from the Wings of Unity party, suggested that the video was a provocation. In his view, authorities organised it to fuel hostility towards Karabakh Armenians.
Ishkhan Saghatelian, a representative of the Armenia Alliance bloc, said Pashinyan himself had staged the video:
“Every time he faces problems, he organises staged terrorist attacks and assassination attempts against himself. He does so for one reason only — to intimidate people and justify unlawful actions, violence and arrests targeting the opposition.”
The parties Strong Armenia and Against All also said it remained unclear to them who had ordered the video.
Comments
Political analyst Areg Kochinyan said:
“This looks very much like a so-called false flag operation, where a third party releases such videos to escalate tensions between two sides or create problems within one of them.
So what is the goal?
- To create fears over security and spread a sense of vulnerability among people.
- To trigger tensions inside Armenia, especially towards compatriots from Artsakh.
My message is simple: do not fall for such manipulation. Armenia will likely see more of this. Russia has already carried out similar operations in other countries.
I would not be surprised if the people in the video are not even from Karabakh and someone simply added the audio later. I am also almost certain that this video was filmed in Russia.
Do not panic, do not become anxious, stay calm — everything is fine, everything will take its course.”
Political analyst Robert Gevondyan said:
“I see two possible explanations for the story about the masked terrorists.
This is another attempt to strike in a hybrid war. It is a targeted attack against our compatriots from Artsakh. Someone portrays them as terrorists, although the people in the video may not even be Armenian. In this way, they are trying to deepen divisions within Armenian society.
In that case, society should show unity and reject attempts at manipulation. For example, it would help if an organisation representing compatriots displaced from Artsakh stated that they are part of the Armenian people and condemned any act of terrorism.
Another possibility is that some adventurers genuinely decided to create a terrorist threat.
In that case, law enforcement agencies should quickly identify the participants and organisers, show society who they really are and impose the harshest punishment permitted by law.”
Threat to assassinate Nikol Pashinyan
