Poll: Will Armenia’s ruling party win June election?
Pre-election opinion poll in Armenia
“The overall results demonstrate that Civic Contract, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, would win the plurality of the votes if the elections were held now, but pending on voter turnout, may fall short of securing a single-party government”, the Center for Electoral Systems Studies of Armenia said.
The centre presented the results of the first round of polling ahead of parliamentary elections in Armenia. The elections will take place on 7 June 2026. Researchers interviewed 820 citizens in a telephone survey. Eighty-two percent of respondents said they plan to take part in the upcoming vote.
The authors of the study plan to conduct three more surveys before the elections. They say they will publish those results as well.
The centre’s experts conclude that the ruling party would receive about 40.5% of the vote if turnout reaches 82%.
“Civic Contract remains the only pro-Western, pro-Velvet party that is above the threshold to enter Parliament. Substantively, the results demonstrate that Armenia’s democratic opposition, and possible coalition partners to Civic Contract, are absent from the electoral domain as electorally-viable political parties”, the researchers say.
The centre also analysed the opposition’s chances. According to the survey, the party Strong Armenia will most likely take second place by vote share. Prosperous Armenia will likely take third place.
Businessmen Samvel Karapetyan and Gagik Tsarukyan lead these parties. The ruling team describes them as “Russian and local oligarchs”. Many residents of Armenia view both parties as pro-Russian.
According to the survey, the Armenia Alliance led by former president Robert Kocharyan will not cross the electoral threshold and will fail to enter parliament.
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Five key factors that could influence the election results
Experts from the Center for Electoral Systems Studies of Armenia say the survey reveals five important trends:
- “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan receives low ratings for his performance, but he still holds relatively strong positions among undecided voters;
- the party Strong Armenia has absorbed the votes of the Armenia Alliance. It mainly consolidated voters who supported Robert Kocharyan in 2021;
- most voters believe the security situation in Armenia has improved. Undecided voters rate this improvement even more positively;
- society expresses optimism about the country’s economic future, although many people still have reservations about the economic situation over the past 12 months;
- regardless of personal political preferences, most citizens of Armenia believe the ruling party will win the election.”
“Civil Contract will win a relative but not an absolute majority”
The ruling party Civil Contract will secure a relative majority in parliament but not an absolute one. The survey results point to this outcome when analysts exclude the potential votes of undecided voters.
The projected distribution of votes looks as follows:
- Civil Contract — 26.1%
- Strong Armenia — 11.9%
- Prosperous Armenia — 6%
The opposition Armenia Alliance led by former president Robert Kocharyan would receive 3.3%, according to the poll. This result would leave the bloc below the electoral threshold.
Political parties must secure at least 4% of the vote to enter parliament. Electoral blocs must reach an 8% threshold.
Votes of Pashinyan’s opponents shift to parties of two major businessmen
During the snap parliamentary elections in 2021, the Armenia Alliance won 21% of the vote. The new research suggests the bloc is losing most of that support this year to the recently created party Strong Armenia. Dollar billionaire Samvel Karapetyan leads the party. Authorities placed him under house arrest on charges of calling for the seizure of power.
Experts at the Center for Electoral Systems Studies of Armenia say Strong Armenia resembles the Kocharyan-led Armenia Alliance in many ways. They describe it as an ideologically pro-Russian force that opposes the “Velvet Revolution”. In Armenia, the “Velvet Revolution” refers to the protest movement led in 2018 by opposition politician Nikol Pashinyan. The victory of that movement brought him and his team to power.
The poll also suggests that part of the votes that the Armenia Alliance won in 2021 will shift to Prosperous Armenia led by Gagik Tsarukyan.
“The votes of Pashinyan’s opponents will consolidate around Strong Armenia and Prosperous Armenia. These two forces have absorbed a significant share of the electorate that previously supported the bloc led by Robert Kocharyan,” the authors of the study say.
Pre-election opinion poll in Armenia
