Will Russia turn to Central Asia and the South Caucasus after Ukraine?
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US think tank on Caucasus and Asia
The US-based analytical centre the Atlantic Council warns that a failed settlement of the war in Ukraine could trigger new conflicts across the post-Soviet space. According to its analysts, the South Caucasus and Central Asia would be particularly at risk, as the report says that preparations for destabilisation there are already “well under way”.
The analysts note that:
Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, often described as “Putin’s brain”, said last month that no post-Soviet state should possess sovereignty.
Days earlier, leading Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov called on Russia to carry out “special military operations”, similar to the invasion of Ukraine, in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
In early February, Azerbaijan’s security services released recordings of conversations involving former presidential administration chief Ramiz Mehdiyev, in which he allegedly coordinated plans for a coup with Russian FSB agents.
In Armenia last summer, authorities arrested Russian-Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan on charges of conspiring to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in cooperation with Gazprom and Russian Railways.
In Central Asia, leaked documents attributed to Russian military intelligence outline plans for active destabilisation operations in Kazakhstan, including bribing elites, weaponising accusations of “Russophobia”, and spreading propaganda through front organisations.
