Why Azerbaijan is deepening ties with China — and what it could mean
Azerbaijan–China partnership
The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement between Azerbaijan and China marked the beginning of a new phase in relations between the two countries. Political commentator Elman Fattah and historian Jamil Hasanli believe that this stage raises concerns about the future of the Azerbaijani state.
The agreement was signed in Beijing by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The document includes around 20 agreements — ranging from visa liberalisation to energy, digital technologies, and transport infrastructure — and holds significant weight for Azerbaijan’s future political and economic alignment.
Although these agreements offer new opportunities for Azerbaijan’s economic development, public debate is growing over their political, social, and geopolitical implications.
Elman Fattah: Agreement with China is flexible authoritarian diplomacy
Political commentator and co-founder of ResPlatform, Elman Fattah, believes that Azerbaijan’s quicker signing of the agreement with China — compared to the EU — is due to the fact that the Chinese side does not impose democratic obligations.
In an interview with JAMnews, Fattah stated that the prolonged negotiations with Europe, ongoing since 2009, are due to demands concerning human rights and the rule of law, which are unacceptable to the Azerbaijani government.
“Authoritarian systems come to agreements with each other more quickly and flexibly because there are no mechanisms of democratic oversight. In that sense, China is the ‘ideal partner’.”
In Fattah’s view, visa-free travel may promote tourism, but it could also lead to a mass influx of Chinese migrants and pose risks to social security. This, he argues, can be seen as a concession made more in the interest of preserving power than serving the state.
“The fact that the Azerbaijani regime — which keeps its borders closed under the pretext of security — considers this visa-free regime acceptable shows that it poses no direct threat to the government. But it could cause serious harm to the state.”
Russia’s role
Elman Fattah notes that the agreement aligns with Russia’s interests, which also benefits Azerbaijan, as the country is one of the active members of the international authoritarian coalition.
“The two leading countries in this informal coalition are China and Russia. The agreement will strengthen ties between Aliyev and Putin, since China maintains close, high-level relations with Putin. If there is tension between Aliyev and Putin, China will take steps to normalise those relations,” Fattah stated.
Azerbaijan is deepening ties with China, drifting away from Europe?
According to the political commentator, the agreement with China and cooperation with the EU are separate issues. Aliyev wants an economic agreement with the EU without any human rights or democratic conditions — just like the one with China. Fattah recalls that in the gas agreement signed with the EU in 2022, such requirements were not raised; only issues of gas transit and trade were discussed.
“The EU has become a geography without a leader — it cannot consistently defend its principles. Aliyev believes he is currently in a strong position, and that the EU wants to maintain relations with him. However, if the EU shows political will, it could use Azerbaijan’s economic dependence (91% of budget revenue comes from oil, and 70% of foreign trade is with Western countries) as leverage, impose limits on the agreement with China, and push Aliyev toward reforms.”
Jamil Hasanli: “Promotion of Chinese universities is a tragedy, a sign of misunderstanding and ignorance”
Historian and chairman of the National Council of Democratic Forces, Jamil Hasanli, wrote on his Facebook page that following the signing of the agreement with China, the discussion around sending students not to Western or American universities but to Chinese ones is “an absolutely wrong and harmful approach.”
“If the country needs specialists in Chinese language, history, culture, or the study of Chinese sources, then students can be sent to top universities in China. However, in other fields, even the Chinese themselves send their children to Western universities such as Harvard, Princeton, Columbia, Stanford, Berkeley, Yale, Oxford, Cambridge, the London School of Economics, the Sorbonne, and Humboldt. And Azerbaijan is sending its youth to China.”
He described the closure of the Erasmus+ student exchange programme in Azerbaijan and the promotion of Chinese universities as a “tragedy, a sign of misunderstanding and ignorance.”
“I have worked at institutions such as the University of London, LSE, Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard, Princeton, and Georgetown, where there are many Chinese students. In 2016–2017, I was a visiting professor at East China Normal University in Shanghai and also lectured at Peking University and Lanzhou University.
I know the level of education at these universities. The main dream of Chinese families is to send their children to Western universities. Sending Azerbaijan’s youth to China and promoting this direction is a mistake.
For a long time, North Korea’s youth studied in China — now Azerbaijan wants to follow the same path.”
Azerbaijan is deepening ties with China
