Why Baku threatens to "use its entire military arsenal": Opinion from Yerevan
Baku threatens Yerevan
Recently, Baku accused Yerevan of “border provocations.” The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense stated, “If such provocative actions do not cease, appropriate countermeasures will be taken in self-defense, using all means available in the arsenal of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.” Yerevan denied the allegations of provocations. The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by saying that “attempts to involve Armenia in rhetoric that exacerbates the situation are unacceptable.”
The statement from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense coincided with the visit of Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations at the U.S. Department of State, Louis Bono, to Yerevan. The U.S. Embassy in Armenia reported that he discussed efforts to establish a lasting peace with Azerbaijan with Armenian authorities.
Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan believes that Azerbaijan does not intend to launch large-scale military actions against Armenia at this time. He interprets the statements from Baku as part of a “diplomatic game.”
“The U.S. wants Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign some document that can be presented as a diplomatic victory for the West, particularly the U.S. Azerbaijan is resisting this in every way possible. They are trying to buy time until November, when the U.S. presidential elections are scheduled. Baku hopes that Trump will win, allowing them to gain more,” the political analyst told JAMnews.
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Details of the statement from Baku
On the evening of July 25, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense issued a statement claiming that the Armenian Armed Forces used “heavy weapons in the direction of Kalbajar and a quadcopter in the direction of Tovuz.” The Ministry threatened to respond using all means available in its arsenal.
“Armenia and its patrons should refrain from intending to create a new hotbed of war in the South Caucasus,” the statement said.
While the “patrons” of Armenia are not explicitly named, the statement criticizes countries that are deepening military cooperation with Armenia:
“The military exercises conducted by the U.S. in Armenia, the provision of lethal weapons to Armenia by France, and the military assistance provided to Armenia by the European Union under the guise of the European Peace Facility, initially amounting to 10 million euros, encourage the occupying Armenia to carry out such provocations and indicate preparations for another war against Azerbaijan.”
“Armenia has no other goal except to defend its territory”
Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan responded to Baku’s statement, calling it “inexplicable.” She reminded that Azerbaijan had not responded to Yerevan’s proposal to establish a joint mechanism for investigating border incidents.
According to Badalyan, this mechanism “would help clarify any situation and prevent the spread of false information.” She stated:
“Attempts to involve the Republic of Armenia in rhetoric that exacerbates the situation are unacceptable. The Armenian government remains committed to a peaceful agenda and will not deviate from this strategy.“
Regarding the reform of Armenia’s Armed Forces and the acquisition of weapons, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized that maintaining a capable army is a sovereign right of all countries:
“Armenia has no defense and security objectives other than the protection of its internationally recognized territory. In the process of reforming the army, the Republic of Armenia acts exclusively within the framework of international law.”
Badalyan also reminded that Armenia had proposed to Azerbaijan the creation of a joint arms control mechanism.
“But Azerbaijan did not respond to this proposal. Nevertheless, this proposal remains on the table,” she emphasized.
Commentary
The statements made by Azerbaijan serve several purposes, according to political analyst Robert Ghevondyan. He believes that the West is pressuring Baku to sign an agreement with Armenia, and Azerbaijan is thus attempting to resist this pressure.
“But that’s not the only issue. Baku is also trying to criticize all power centers that pursue a policy of equal opportunities towards both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The supporters of this policy are the United States and most EU countries. This explains the attacks on the US, France, and the European Union in the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense’s statement,” says the analyst.
According to him, the Azerbaijani side prefers the Russian negotiation platform. Since the end of last year, Aliyev has boycotted negotiations mediated by the West and stated his willingness to meet in Moscow, Ghevondyan recalls:
“Currently, the approaches of Russia and Azerbaijan are identical. They have a wide range of compatible interests. This gives Azerbaijan a significant advantage over Armenia on this platform. For this reason, Yerevan rejects the offers for negotiations in Russia.”
The expert believes that Baku is unlikely to initiate large-scale military actions before the spring of 2025. He explains this by saying that the Azerbaijani authorities would not want to jeopardize the COP 29 conference scheduled for the fall. Additionally, it would be very difficult to conduct military operations in winter, especially in the mountainous regions of Armenia.
“Moreover, at this point, Baku does not intend to start large-scale operations. The only declared goal is ‘to deter Armenia.’ And for Baku, it is currently not feasible to implement ‘deterrence’ through war,” emphasizes Robert Ghevondyan.
He also advises paying attention to the fact that “Armenia is not the same as it was in 2021-2022; the army is now more capable.” The military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also different now, in his opinion. In this regard, the outcome of potential military actions, in his view, is not as clear-cut as it was until recently.
