Signing of Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty is only theoretically possible
Is the conflict exhausted
Unique conditions for the full establishment of relations between the countries — this is how the current period in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict can be characterized. The confrontation which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union has completely changed its logic over the past three years. The basis of the conflict between Yerevan and Baku was Nagorno-Karabakh. But in September 2023, Azerbaijan used military force and established full control over this territory.
Official Yerevan in fact did not object to this development of events and limited itself to restrained statements. Moreover, the Armenian authorities are ready to document the status of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan. In this case, can the conflict be considered exhausted? At the moment, it seems that this is not enough for Azerbaijan to make a final peace.
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How did the logic of negotiations change?
The 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh not only disrupted the status quo, but also led to large-scale and, importantly, rapid transformations in the South Caucasus region. The state of affairs has changed not only on the ground but also in the negotiation process. Against the background of the worsening Ukrainian crisis, the mediating countries began to compete for the status of the main moderator of the Yerevan-Baku negotiations.
At some point, the West began to succeed in this struggle. Personal contacts between the heads of the two countries moved to Western platforms. During these meetings, the Azerbaijani side achieved an important result — Armenia’s agreement to officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
European mediators even managed to develop a document that the leaders of the two countries were to sign in Spain in 2023, which stipulates mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of the parties to the conflict within internationally recognized borders. But the President of Azerbaijan did not fly to Granada. The Armenian Prime Minister not only came to the meeting with European partners, but signed the statement.
Armenia recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but received nothing in return. Now there is no Nagorno-Karabakh at all in the negotiation process.
Although Armenia says that the issue is not closed and the Armenian population should return to their homes, but these statements are rather intended for an internal audience. Yerevan is simply unable to put the NK issue back on the international agenda. At least, not yet.
What are the sides talking about now?
After Azerbaijan managed to remove Nagorno-Karabakh from the negotiation process, the bilateral agenda focused on other issues. The most important are the demarcation and delimitation of the border and the unblocking of transportation communications. The issue of enclaves has been raised more and more often recently.
The main goal of the negotiations is to sign a peace treaty, which should put an end to the confrontation between the two states. But only Azerbaijan, having received everything it needed on the Western platforms, no longer accepts the invitations of Brussels and Washington to come and continue negotiations.
Instead Baku’s position is tilted towards Russia. And this does not suit Armenia, whose authorities have been boycotting events under the auspices of the CSTO and other Russian integration structures for a long time.
The Armenian Prime Minister himself has also refused several times to participate in summits with the participation of the leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev in this regard said Armenia’s “destructive position” was particularly due to Nikol Pashinyan’s decision not to participate in the CIS summit in Bishkek:
“We perceive with gratitude Russia’s mediation in the normalization of relations with Armenia. Russia is our neighbor and ally, as well as Armenia’s ally. It takes 6 hours for the Armenian Prime Minister to fly to Granada, participate in an incomprehensible meeting there, where Azerbaijan without Azerbaijan is discussed. And he cannot fly 2-3 hours to Bishkek, he has important business.”
Baku went further and declared the policy of the United States in the region unilateral. Aliyev defiantly refused to receive the US State Department’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations, Louis Bono.
The reason for the deterioration of relations was the cancelation of visits of Azerbaijani representatives to the United States. The State Department explained this by the lack of progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan. The United States also suspended military aid to Azerbaijan.
However, attempts by Washington and Brussels to put pressure on Baku at the level of statements have not yielded results. Ilham Aliyev enjoys the full support of Turkey, as well as Russia, feels quite confident and intends to get the most out of the current situation.
The threat of a new war
For more than a year now, expert circles have been discussing whether Azerbaijan will be satisfied with Karabakh or continue escalation on the border with Armenia. In recent months, both sides have claimed progress in negotiations and convergence of positions on some disputed points.
This inspired at least some optimism, giving the impression that Aliyev had chosen a peaceful outcome.
But now the Azerbaijani president is essentially back to square one:
“The process of building our army will continue. Armenia should know that no matter how many weapons it buys, no matter how it is supported, any source of threat to us will be immediately destroyed. I am not hiding this, so that tomorrow no one will say that something unexpected has happened.”
Baku continues to demand a corridor
In recent statements, the Azerbaijani leader also mentioned the “Zangezur corridor” and the process of delimitation of the state border.
Since the 2020 war, there has been a fierce dispute between the sides over approaches to unblocking transport communications. Azerbaijan insists on an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia to Nakhichevan. Yerevan wants to control all transit routes through its territory.
This is also acceptable to Western partners, and at some point it seemed that Azerbaijan had gotten used to this approach. However, Aliyev again said that if his country does not get the so-called “Zangezur corridor”, the blockade of Armenia will continue:
“If the route I named is not opened, we do not intend to open our border with Armenia in any other place. Cargo and people must pass from one part of Azerbaijan to another without any checks.”
This and other statements by the Azerbaijani leader provoked a strong response in Armenia. Official Yerevan again had to explain to Baku in restrained, diplomatic language that the provision of a “corridor” is excluded, Armenia intends to control the roads passing through its sovereign territory.
“They are trying to reintroduce corridor logic, which we categorically reject. On the corridor issue, they refer to the statement of November 9 [whose signing stopped the war in Karabakh in 2020]. But the two signatories of the document [Russia and Azerbaijan] demonstrated from the moment of signing until the September 2023 events that there is no such document for them. And there is also no mention of a corridor in the November 9 statement,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.
He recalled that the same document stipulates guarantees for the unimpeded functioning of the Lachin corridor, the only road linking NK with Armenia, and for the safety of the Armenian population. But after the September 2023 one-day war and the exodus of the Armenian population from Karabakh, the trilateral statement finally lost its meaning and any legal force.
The main danger for Armenia
The process of delimitation and demarcation of the state border also poses serious risks for Yerevan. The Armenian authorities insist that Soviet maps from the 1970s should serve as the basis for this process. They most accurately define the state of affairs at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
At one point it seemed that the sides had managed to agree on this issue. But in the same interview with Aliyev it became clear that there is no change here either:
“Armenia’s proposal to delimit the border on the basis of maps from the 1970s is unacceptable. Either the period of the establishment of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic or the period of Sovietization should be taken as a reference point.”
Azerbaijan has recently been increasingly talking about the need to sign a peace treaty without specifying the principles on which the process of delimitation and demarcation of the border will be conducted. Yerevan views such statements as an attempt to make new territorial claims against Armenia.
“The point of the delimitation process is not to create a new border, as these borders have already been fixed by the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, according to which the existing administrative borders between Soviet states became state borders. Our delimitation commissions should reproduce these borders, they should be reproduced on the ground, on maps and papers. Azerbaijan is trying to form territorial claims against Armenia, which is absolutely unacceptable,” Pashinyan said in response.
What is to come?
It is premature to say that the latest statements from Baku indicate a final decision to go for confrontation. In this regard, Aliyev still has room for maneuvering.
But the Azerbaijani leader’s messages suggest that Baku’s confrontation with Yerevan will continue and it is not worth expecting the signing of a peace treaty in the near future.
However, even if some paper is signed, it will not be a guarantee of peace if Armenia agrees to sign it without specifying the principles of delimitation. Political scientist Stepan Danielyan believes so:
“In such a scenario, it will be a treaty on a future war or on Armenia’s surrender. Azerbaijan refuses to recognize Armenia’s territorial integrity. All the points that should be in the peace treaty are being promoted by Baku. Azerbaijan is preparing for another aggression, and Turkey is behind it.”
Developments in the South Caucasus region will be largely determined by the international situation. The attention of mediators, primarily Washington, is focused on the ongoing crisis in the Gaza Strip and around Ukraine. Given this and the expected presidential elections in the United States, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan seems quite probable.
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Is the conflict exhausted
