Turkey's initiative may be the last chance for world - comments from Baku

JAMnews

Baku

Turkish mediation initiative

The massive strike by the Russian army on infrastructure and civilian facilities in Ukraine has become the “number one topic” in Azerbaijan, discussed by both average social network users and the expert community. According to politician Natik Jafarli, Turkey‘s proposal for a summit with the participation of leading Western powers and Russia to resolve the Ukrainian problem may be the last chance for peace.

On October 10, 2022, civilians were killed and injured, and infrastructure throughout the country was damaged during heavy missile strikes by the Russian army in Ukraine.

Azerbaijani politicians and experts are discussing the events taking place in Ukraine.

War between Russia and Ukraine: which side is Azerbaijan on?

Azerbaijan and Russian-Ukrainian war: despite the declaration on allied cooperaion signed with Russia, Azerbaijan officially took a neutral position regarding Russia’s invastion of Ukraine

“We are entering a very dangerous period”

One of the leaders of the Republican Alternative opposition party, Natik Jafarli, believes that the Russian-Ukrainian war is entering a bloodier, wilder phase which will lead to a serious increase in human losses. Because the Russian political elite is built on Putin, Putin’s defeat in this war will not lead to the elimination of the entire elite, the Azerbaijani politician notes.

“His 23-year rule in the country means that the entire economic and political elite is under complete control; inside Russia not a single strong figure goes against the main line, but another interesting process is underway: in search of a “scapegoat” to justify their failures the elite will begin to drown each other. To avoid the wrath of the “king”, they will contribute to the growth of internal intrigues by deflecting blame.

Op-ed: Russia intends to create 'league of dwarf states'

How will the recent escalation in relations between Russia and Ukraine affect Azerbaijan and what is the end goal of Russia’s foreign policy in the region?

“This is a new situation for Russia, but this is not enough to end the war. We are entering a very dangerous period, we are on the verge of adventurism that could lead to the death of tens of millions of people around the world. And frankly, there is no way out of this situation yet.

“But Turkey’s latest initiative may turn out to be the last chance for peace – Ankara proposed to organize a summit at the highest level with the participation of Russia, the USA, Great Britain, France and Germany. If this succeeds, tens of millions of lives could be saved.

Turkey is on the brink of war with Greece. What's happening?

Relations between Turkey and Greece, both NATO members, have become strained to the limit. The nations periodically accuse each other of violating each other’s airspace with military aircraft, and air defense systems are brought into combat position. According to experts from both countries, the reason for the escalation has to do with decisive elections in both Turkey and Greece next summer.

“The modern world is at a crossroads between the savagery of Russia, which despises humanity, and the even broader plans of the West, which give rise to a hated attitude towards humanity. This opens the door to a global catastrophe.

“Many analysts are now drawing parallels between the current situation and the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s, which could have ended in a nuclear war. But this is an erroneous opinion. The missile crisis was open to mutual concessions, and therefore ended in negotiations: Russia removed nuclear weapons from Cuba, and the United States (NATO) from Turkey.

“Now the parties are deliberately running out of opportunities for mutual concessions. Russia closed the door to such concessions by declaring all the occupied territories its “legitimate” lands. And the West closed the same door by convincing itself that the only way to stop Russia was to defeat it militarily.

“This is a path to disaster, and so far there is no way out of this path. Even if the Russian elite finds the strength to overthrow Putin, this will not solve the problem. Putin has built such a configuration that even worse “Putins” will come after him…,” Natig Jafarli wrote on his Facebook page.

Belarus joins the war?

The head of the Azerbaijani analytical center Atlas, Elkhan Shahinoglu, commented on the news from Minsk that Belarus is officially preparing to enter the war in Ukraine.

“President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, unable to withstand the pressure of his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, is going to join the war against Ukraine. This is proved by Lukashenko’s latest accusations against Kyiv. According to Lukashenko, Ukraine is planning to attack Belarus,” the expert said.

According to Shahinoglu, this statement is just a pretext for joining the war:

“At a time when Ukraine is waging a difficult war against Russia, opening a second front against Belarus is not in the interests of Kyiv. On the contrary, Ukraine, fearing the plans nurtured by Lukashenko, mined the border with Belarus.”

He says that Russia’s position is tenuous, and so the owner of the Kremlin wants Belarus to cross the border and add problems for the Ukrainian army:

“From the very beginning of the war, Lukashenko has not wanted to get involved in Putin’s plans, only occasionally fulfilling some of his wishes. Russia launched missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine from Belarus, using its railway network.

“But Putin is no longer satisfied with this state of affairs. He wants to open a second front against Ukraine with the help of the Belarusian army. But the people of Belarus do not want to die in the war against Ukraine. Lukashenko is also aware of this, but he cannot go against his “big brother”.

“Lukashenka may try to justify his inclusion in the war as a response to the “provocations” of Ukraine. If this happens, then Ukraine will need even more support from partner countries,” the Azerbaijani political scientist added.

Turkish mediation initiative