"If Ivanishvili couldn’t escape sanctions, what does that mean for those around him?" Opinion
Sanctions on Ivanishvili will shake Georgia’s leadership
“U.S. Treasury sanctions against Georgia’s informal ruler, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, will affect far more than just him. It spells the collapse of the power vertical he has built over the years,” political commentator David Zurabishvili writes.
Commentary
Political commentator David Zurabishvili: “I’m not sure how prepared Bidzina Ivanishvili was for U.S. Treasury sanctions. I believe he was more unprepared than ready, though I can’t be certain.
But the sanctions will hurt not so much Ivanishvili himself as the power vertical he has been building for years.
Bidzina Ivanishvili is an atypical authoritarian leader:
● He doesn’t hold the highest state position.
● He doesn’t control a personal security apparatus like ‘death squads’ or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – he has no force structure stronger than the state’s.
● He isn’t part of an influential group, like Maduro in Venezuela (drug cartels, oil sector) or Putin (the KGB).
Until now, Ivanishvili’s power relied on manipulating state institutions and the belief in his omnipotence. Many thought he was invincible, that he had everything planned, could outsmart everyone, and keep everything under control.
The U.S. sanctions severely undermine this perception.
Ivanishvili assured his inner circle there would be no sanctions, claiming that with Trump in power, the Ukraine war would end, and everything would settle. He even said in his speeches: ‘I’m not crazy enough to take steps without calculating everything.’
And now? If even Ivanishvili couldn’t avoid sanctions, what does that mean for his inner circle? Who will they rely on now? Will they still believe in someone who couldn’t protect even himself?
And they have much to lose.
This doubt could become a serious threat to Ivanishvili’s power vertical and quickly dismantle the system he spent years building.
I believe Ivanishvili will try to blame everything on Biden and claim that things will change after Trump’s inauguration. But let me tell him and his supporters: unfortunately for you, it will only get worse under Trump. More sanctions will be added, and at best, the current situation will remain.
Unless, of course, Ivanishvili performs a miracle—announcing new parliamentary elections and fully stepping away from politics. Only then might the sanctions against him be reconsidered.”
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