"Armenia could mitigate Russian aggression." Opinion from Yerevan

Russia`s Influence in Armenia

“War is always a possibility. Let’s say right now there’s a 70 percent chance of it. By taking some smart steps and boosting its own importance, Armenia could bring that risk down to just 10 percent,” says political expert Gurgen Simonyan.

He suggests one of these steps should involve taking away the tools other countries, like Russia, have to interfere in Armenia’s affairs.

On a local TV show, the analyst talked about what else Armenia’s leaders should do to make their position stronger and deal with the problems the country faces.

• “Armenia does not create dividing lines in the region” – Pashinyan
• Peter Stano: “The EU can assist Armenia, but it will not impose solutions”
• “Russia abandoned us at the most critical moment,” said the speaker of the Armenian Parliament

“We need to leave the Russian structures”

Gurgen Simonyan believes Armenia has no chance to thrive within military, political, and economic frameworks operating under Russia’s influence. He’s confident that within these alliances, everything will be done to “suffocate, finish off” Armenia.

Simonyan suggests that the authorities should have announced their withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) immediately after Azerbaijan’s military invasion of Armenian territory in September 2022. He sees this move as overdue but still necessary:

“Our task is to increase the country’s resilience; the war is not over. We need to associate ourselves with the developed community, the European Union, NATO, and establish interstate relations with European countries, particularly France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.”

The political analyst recommends seizing the opportunity and signing a cooperation document with the United States before the active phase of the pre-election campaign begins there:

“It can be signed at the congressional or presidential level. The main thing is to have a document of loyalty so that even if there’s a change in the presidency, it cannot be ignored.”

"Armenia provided with safety cushions" – Opinion on the Brussels meeting

According to political analyst Gurgen Simonyan, although the outcome of the Pashinyan-von der Leyen-Blinken talks only mentions economic assistance to Armenia, there is also a security component included in the package

“We cannot crush Russia, but we can weaken it”

“When you know that an aggressor is about to strike you hard, it’s necessary to weaken them as much as possible. We cannot attack or conquer Russia, nor can we defeat the Russian army. But we can weaken Russia’s influence on Armenia,” says Simonyan.

According to him, to weaken Russian influence in Armenia, it’s necessary to:

• Ban Russian propaganda channels.
• Whenever possible, rid the country of infiltrated agents.
• Diversify the economy, establish connections with developed countries, so that the “Lars factor” [the only land route connecting Armenia with Russia] turns “from a hammer in Russia’s hands into a useless toy.”
• Remove Russian border guards from the state border.

The analyst thinks that if Moscow loses these tools, it’ll have less sway over Yerevan. In that scenario, it’ll likely keep seeking solutions through Baku, Simonyan believes. So, he advises Armenia’s leaders “play their game in the context of the conflict.” . He suggests they neutralize any potential military moves by Azerbaijan with U.S. support and counter Turkey’s influence through European nations.

"Vague and meaningless": the response of the Russian CSTO bloc to Yerevan's request

The CSTO responded to the question about its area of responsibility in Armenia after two years. An anonymous representative of the bloc stated: it ends where the regulated border between the Republic of Armenia and its neighbors lies

“There are guarantees that are already in effect”

When asked if the West would provide Armenia with security guarantees, Gurgen Simonyan replied that Yerevan has already received them. He mentioned the European Union’s observation mission monitoring the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and arms supplies:

“The French ambassador to Armenia stated that France has military equipment that everyone desperately wants to acquire, and France provides it to Armenia. What other guarantees do we want? For them to come and use this weapon themselves?“

According to the political analyst, Armenia “should seek partners and allies, not masters.” Moreover, he believes that the authorities have already found them. Now, it’s just a matter of capitalizing on these achievements, meaning signing bilateral intergovernmental documents with the new partners.