"Investment agreement a step toward Russia’s annexation of Abkhazia." Opinion from Tbilisi
Russia annexes Abkhazia
“If the investment agreement with Russia is ratified in Abkhazia, it will be a step toward Russia’s annexation of the region, followed by full annexation,” said Nodar Harshiladze, founder of the Strategic Analysis Center in Georgia, commenting on the unfolding events in Abkhazia.
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What is happening and why in Abkhazia
Thousands of people took to the streets in Abkhazia on the morning of November 15, demanding the withdrawal of a Russian investment agreement from parliament, which the opposition and much of society view as detrimental to the region and ironically refer to as “privileges for oligarchs.” The protest resulted in the occupation of the presidential administration building and calls for the resignation of President Aslan Bzhaniya, who at that point had refused to step down.
The agreement stipulates that: (1) The agreement grants Russian investors an eight-year exemption from customs duties on imported construction materials and equipment, as well as from property and profit taxes; (2) The value-added tax for investors will be reduced to just 5%, half the standard rate; (3) The Abkhazian government is required to prioritize investors covered by this agreement, listed in a special registry, by granting them preferential access to energy resources and connections to infrastructure and utilities; (4) Investors are allowed to use land allocated by the Abkhazian government as collateral for bank loans. Consequently, if an investor defaults, the bank could claim the land.
Opponents of the agreement argue that it will deal a severe blow to local businesses, which cannot compete with Russian companies under such conditions. Moreover, they believe the agreement poses a threat to the security of the republic.
Commentary
Nodar Harshiladze: “With Trump’s arrival, Russia seems to want to create something akin to a new ‘Potsdam Conference,’ redrawing the map of Europe after World War II.
The European Union is not quite on board and is not inclined to agree to this.
However, it is important to understand what this new geography could look like, specifically where this line will be drawn.
Russia is preparing for Abkhazia to become part of its territory, while Georgia would fall within its sphere of influence. This is what Russia aims to achieve through political negotiations with the Trump administration.
Abkhazia would not be at the top, or even in the top ten, of Russia’s priorities. However, Moscow wants to be prepared with a clear “proposal” for negotiating with Trump, having its own “offer” for the territories it wants to keep under its control.
What and how much Russia will be willing to “pay” for this is another matter. Russia is preparing, and I fear that the investment agreement with Russia in Abkhazia will still be approved, despite the opposition.
What’s surprising here is that Georgia’s ruling elite shamelessly promised before the elections that they were waiting for good news regarding Abkhazia. It seems we’ve now received that “good news.”
This agreement is a decisive step towards the final economic integration of Abkhazia into Russia. From here, it will become clear to what extent this integration will shift into the political sphere and how much this matters to the Kremlin.
The criminal regime in Tskhinvali has long begged Russia to annex them, but the Abkhaz have never wanted that. Two referendums were held in South Ossetia, but they were rejected by Russia because politically, the inclusion of this territory is not in its interest.
For now, it’s more advantageous for Moscow to use these territories as leverage to draw Georgia into the Eurasian Union instead of the European Union.”
