Will Armenia have an EU membership referendum? Pro-Western politicians are starting the process
Referendum on Armenia’s EU membership
Several non-parliamentary pro-European political groups in Armenia are taking practical steps towards this goal. They believe a referendum on EU membership is necessary and have applied to the Central Election Commission for permission to start collecting signatures. The CEC has ten days to make a decision.
If approved, signature collection points will open in municipalities across the country. The initiative group needs 50,000 signatures to present their project to Parliament. The pro-European parties will have 60 days to gather the required signatures according to the constitution.
The possibility of a referendum has been actively discussed in Armenia for several months. In late June, parliamentary hearings on this issue were held at the initiative of these same political forces.
However, the ruling team considers these discussions premature. The authorities believe that a referendum should be the final stage of the accession process, and Armenia has not yet submitted an official membership application.
“According to the classic approach, a referendum should indeed occur at the final stage,” says international relations and security expert Sosi Tatikyan, citing Moldova as an example, which, having candidate status, is only now preparing to hold a referendum to gauge public support for the EU integration process.
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“Ready to collect even 300,000 signatures”
The initiative group believes that the draft law “On Starting Armenia’s EU Accession Process,” which they plan to present to the National Assembly, should be seen as a “reflection of citizens’ will.” They argue that if the government is genuinely committed to EU integration, this initiative will only support the process.
“If they don’t want it, if this is just pretense [of the authorities wanting to be closer to the EU], then we will show that the people are more progressive than the authorities,” says Tigran Khzmalyan, leader of the European Party of Armenia.
According to him, the initiators will not abandon their agenda even if, after collecting 50,000 signatures and submitting the draft law to Parliament, the ruling majority votes against it:
“We are prepared to move to the second stage and collect 300,000 signatures. Then holding a referendum will be a legal requirement.”
The pro-Western forces will have 60 days to organize the collection of 300,000 signatures.
Referendum on Armenia’s EU membership
“The time for a referendum has not yet come”
“As you can see, the EU integration process is progressing smoothly. At some point, naturally, it will reach the stage of a referendum. But now is not the time,” stated Arman Egoyan, Chairman of the Parliamentary Commission on European Integration.
The ruling majority MP also noted that a referendum should be the final stage of the EU accession process.
“The Armenian government does not intend to apply for EU membership for at least the next six months,” emphasized Arman Egoyan.
At the same time, he explained that the issue of membership is not decided by a law passed by Parliament but by a government resolution:
“And the Armenian government can submit such an application to the European Union at any time.”
Referendum on Armenia’s EU membership
How ready is the EU to get closer to Armenia?
In October of last year, the prime minister of Armenia stated in the European Parliament that “Armenia is ready to be as close to the European Union as the EU deems possible.”
In July 2024, at the “Armenian Democratic Forum,” he said that a referendum on EU membership would be preceded by a campaign during which people would ask questions he cannot answer:
“Citizens will ask questions: ‘How, when, does the EU want this?’ People will ask if the EU is ready to accept them. I cannot answer this question. […] And we have already declared our political will at the highest level.”
Commentary
Armenia has “missed the train,” says international relations and security expert Sosi Tatikyan:
“Unlike all the other countries striving for EU integration, which include several Western Balkan countries, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, only Armenia does not have candidate status.”
However, in an interview with a local publication, she expressed agreement with holding a referendum at the final stage of the process. However, she considers holding a referendum now a risky step:
“Preparing for a referendum takes years of effort. Honestly, I would like to share the confidence of the political forces supporting it that the majority of the population would vote ‘yes,’ but I am not sure of this.“
The expert also warns that “there are already candidate countries on the brink of disappointment,” as their membership is periodically blocked by one or two EU member states:
“As a result, public sentiment shifts. Broad support for EU membership has decreased, for example, in North Macedonia. This country is constantly faced with preconditions, initially from Greece, and now Bulgaria. These involve changing the country’s name, amending the constitution, and issues related to identity,” explained Tatikyan.
She adds that even after a referendum, Armenia may have to wait years for candidate status.
Referendum on Armenia’s EU membership
