Armenia-Russia

21.11.2022

Putin going to Yerevan for CSTO session: what to expect?

Armine Martirosyan

Yerevan

What to expect from Putin’s visit

Yerevan is awaiting the arrival of the President of Russia for a session of the Collective Security Council of the CSTO military bloc, which is under the leadership of Russia, scheduled for November 23. It will be attended by the heads of state of CSTO members. The Kremlin press service not only confirmed the participation of the Russian president, but also reported that Putin was going to Armenia a day earlier, and on the 23rd he had planned a separate meeting with Prime Minister Pashinyan.

The CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Some in Armenian society are not happy with this visit and are expressing their dissatisfaction in social networks, with some intending to hold protests. Russia and the CSTO bloc are now not perceived well in Armenian society, the latter being disappointed by the inaction of the allies after the invasion by the Azerbaijani armed forces of Armenia. Local experts believe that Moscow is losing influence in the region and that Russia’s short-sighted policy has led to “positional changes.”

Many analysts speak openly about the need to leave the Russian bloc and not pin any hopes on a nominal ally who has never actually helped Armenia.

Gurgen Simonyan, political scientist

Russia lost the region

“Despite all confirmations, it is too early to say whether Putin will come to Yerevan, given that he ultimately did not go to the G-20 summit.

After the fall of Kherson, many predicted Putin’s departure from active politics. And the visit to Armenia, if it takes place, will be aimed more at its internal audience.

It will be necessary to show that he is physically healthy, in active politics and continues to maintain control.

Perhaps with his visit Putin also wants to tell the West that Armenia is in its zone of influence. But here everything changed a long time ago. In Armenia, due to the short-sighted strategic decisions of Russia, a vacuum was created which Turkey has tried to fill. Azerbaijan’s large-scale attack on Armenia in September of this year is precisely Turkey’s ambition.

Thanks to the US, Turkey’s ambitions have failed. The region has been conquered by the United States, no matter how Putin demonstrates his activity in Armenia.

Moreover, it was conquered by “brute American force.” In the case of the United States this is not only a demonstration of military power, but also a threat to use this force through diplomacy. There is no other such force that can restrain Turkey’s aspirations. Iran does not have the appropriate resources, Russia is neutralized. It is represented in Armenia only by the fifth column, collaborators, but they are also significantly losing their positions due to the weakening of Russia itself.

I suspect that they are also in the executive branch, the parliamentary and extra-parliamentary opposition, and among civil society. But even in this scenario, according to many opinion polls, after 2020 the level of anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia has risen to 80%. People experienced frustration, disappointment, and this greatly affected their attitude towards the Russian authorities.”

"Staying with Russia is a greater risk for Armenia than alliance with the US." Opinion

More and more experts advise the Armenian authorities to take a decisive stance and abandon pseudo-allied relations with Russia while it is still possible to change something

Force methods exhausted

“Putin cannot impose anything on Armenia. All he is capable of is threats, and only with economic sanctions, because all forceful methods have been exhausted. Azerbaijan cannot do anything more on command from Russia because of the presence of the US in the region.

They hoped that the Democrats would lose in the midterm elections in America and, playing on the interests of the Republicans, would be able to restore influence in the region. If the Trumpists had won, the Turks would have fought for influence in the region with the Russians, who had lost their ability to resist. But the Republican victory was very modest. The Democrats will hold their ground in the Senate.”

What to expect from Putin’s visit

Make a statement and leave

“Putin can raise gas prices, increase debts, he is ready for anything if only Armenia does not leave the CSTO, so that it remains in his sphere of influence and plays his game.

But Armenia has already delivered an ultimatum to the CSTO. And if the organization does not recognize the aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia, then it has the full moral right to withdraw from this organization.

The CSTO military bloc should clearly name Azerbaijan as an aggressor, declare that Azerbaijan has seized sovereign territories of Armenia and demand that the Azerbaijani troops leave the Armenian territories, present an ultimatum to Baku, and if Aliyev refuses, restore the territorial integrity of Armenia by the use of force.

I do not think the CSTO will go for it, given the state of relations between the member countries of this bloc, in particular Belarus and Kazakhstan with Azerbaijan. But then Armenia can say that this military bloc cannot ensure its military-strategic interests and the country is terminating its membership in the CSTO.

All members of the CSTO are well aware that Armenia is not a member of their club. Armenia is a democratic country, while they are a club of authoritarian countries.

Armenia must show the will to leave this organization and have nothing to do with such outcast countries as Belarus, whose president allows himself to insult Armenia, its leadership and people.”

What to expect from Putin’s visit

Scandalous statements by Lukashenko. Opinion from Yerevan

Statements by the President of Belarus on friendly relations with Aliyev and the undesirability of Armenia’s cooperation with the West, reaction from Yerevan, as well as a commentary by a political scientist

What to expect from Putin’s visit

Alternative sources as a method of countering Russian sanctions

“Armenia can and must resist Putin’s economic threats.

Iran has already doubled its gas exports to Armenia. The budget of Armenia for 2023, including those designed for the development of infrastructures, is quite attractive. If it is possible to build a new, wider gas pipeline with a diameter of 1200-1300 mm, capable of passing at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, then Armenia will be able to receive gas almost free of charge for the amount of traffic for the gas-electricity deal with Iran, and with payments to replenish their budget.

There may also be problems with the import of Russian grain. But it is possible to replace Russian grain with Ukrainian, especially since Ukraine is ready to support the countries that have suffered because of Russia.

The most vulnerable area for Armenia is the security sector. Here the situation could be hopeless if Russia could use force directly. But it can’t. Moscow must force Azerbaijan into new aggression, but the States will not allow it.

Russia no longer decides anything in the region, and the Sochi meeting, where Moscow lost its positions, where the sovereignty of Armenia and its territorial integrity, which had been called into question before, was recognized, is proof of this. Russia no longer has the ability to latently or openly put pressure on Armenia. The Russian question is closed here.”

What to expect from Putin’s visit

Western Security Umbrella

“The vacuum in Armenia has been filled by the US, but this is temporary. Since the situation may change for various reasons, the United States wants to transfer its informal influence to France.

The Western security umbrella will be much more profitable than the Russian one, which is too expensive and involves the colonization of Armenia.

The West recognizes the sovereignty of Armenia, allows it to exist, but in return wants some support in matters not only pertaining to Russia, but also Iran, Turkey, infrastructure, etc.

Iran is the second country in terms of energy resources in the world and the West will look for ways to cooperate with it. For at least twenty years, until the West switches to alternative energy resources it will need gas. During this time the West will try to make Iran predictable, and through pressure. But Iran has given in, and the confirmation of this is the refusal to sell ballistic missiles to Russia. Iran refused the deal even after Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev’s visit to Tehran.

Armenia, within the framework of the US strategic concept, is part of the European Command [US European Command (EUCOM) – one of the eleven unified combat commands of the US armed forces], where France has been appointed the main player and curator. But European Command is not united. It also has a Middle East direction which includes Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia. And Turkey is an ally of the United States here.

Since there is an historical problem between Armenia and Turkey, and Turkey is clearly on the side of Azerbaijan, the US instructed France to take over the strategic direction related to Armenia. And France, as the leader of EUCOM and a member of NATO, assumes this responsibility, so that if the situation changes as a result of the American elections, the issue of Armenia’s security would be resolved within NATO.

This security umbrella will solve certain problems until we get back on our feet and bring our defense capabilities to such a level that we can independently fight against any aggression, including from Turkey. It has always been possible, but Russia opposed this development.

Unfortunately, even now the Armenian authorities act uncertainly. Their fear is understandable, it is a personal fear of Russia itself, which threatened them with reprisals. But with support from the West the Armenian authorities should act more boldly.

They can ask the US to help them with information and preventative measures to keep themselves safe. In any case, whatever the reasons, it is not permissible to have a policy to the detriment of Armenia.”