Pashinyan proposes to establish arms control. Will Baku agree?
Pashinyan’s proposal to Baku
“Let’s sign an arms control agreement so that Armenia and Azerbaijan reach concrete agreements regarding arms and have the opportunity to control each other,” the Armenian prime minister said yesterday during a meeting of the initiative group of his Civil Pact party.
Nikol Pashinyan said that he is in favor of such a proposal to Baku, and if there is a “sincere desire to achieve peace, all these issues can be solved.”
According to some Armenian experts, Pashinyan’s proposal proves that “Armenia has no desire to change the imbalance of power.” Others believe that “Yerevan is trying to stop “possible military provocations by Baku”.
“All countries have the right to have an army”
In his speech, the Armenian Prime Minister said that every country has an undeniable right to have an army. Pashinyan expressed bewilderment over the fact that Baku, on the one hand, exclaims about strengthening its army, and on the other hand decries Armenia buying weapons from India and France.
“Where is the logic? Azerbaijan believes that the Republic of Armenia should not have an army? If so, it means that the right to exist of the Republic of Armenia is questioned. And this is absolutely unacceptable,” he said.
The Prime Minister believes that both Armenia and Azerbaijan may have concerns about the armament of the other side. That is why he proposes to sign a peace treaty in such a way as to prevent the possibility of war:
“But sometimes, when we get acquainted with Azerbaijan’s proposals [for a peace treaty], we get the impression that there is an attempt to create a document that legitimizes future wars.”
Pashinyan recalled that Yerevan proposed mirror withdrawal of troops and demilitarization of border zones, but Baku rejected both proposals. As for his new proposal on arms control, he limited himself to what he said in the speech. Details of his next initiative were not provided.
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According to political scientist Suren Surenyants, Pashinyan’s proposal is “a helpless assurance by Aliyev that Armenia has no desire to arm itself or change the imbalance of power”. He wrote on Facebook that this is the head of state’s “idea of peace.”
“Don’t be surprised later if Aliyev’s ‘mirror’ response to this point will be a demand to fix the maximum number of armed forces of the Republic of Armenia or permissible types of armament in the peace agreement,” Surenyants emphasized.
Political observer Hakob Badalyan believes that with this initiative Armenia is trying to make international actors believe that it is unconditionally committed to peace. Which, in his opinion, is also an attempt to “deprive Azerbaijan of arguments for possible military provocations”.
In an interview with JAMnews, Badalyan emphasized that Yerevan understands perfectly well how unrealistic the realization of this proposal is:
“Unrealistic, at least due to the fact that Azerbaijan is absolutely not inclined to accept such proposals. Baku has no plans to discuss balanced, mutually acceptable terms of peaceful coexistence with Armenia.”
The columnist believes that today there are neither theoretical nor practical possibilities for the realization of such a proposal — and the reason is not only Baku’s position, but also the situation in the world.
In Badalyan’s opinion, Yerevan is trying to involve international partners in the process of restraining Baku with its new proposal:
“Yerevan’s rhetoric on the peace agenda is generally aimed at neutralizing Azerbaijan’s motives to start a possible military escalation or attempts to create the ground for it, as well as at increasing the responsibility of international actors in this issue.”
He says international partners say they will make every effort to establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but are not taking concrete steps to do so. According to Badalyan, the Armenian authorities are aware of the balance of power and understand that “Armenia cannot sufficiently ensure stability and neutralize Azerbaijan’s ambitions with its resources”.
He recalls that even before the Velvet Revolution and the change of power in 2018, Yerevan came out with similar initiatives and even raised the issue of not arming the conflicting countries.
“If then there was no reaction to such proposals, today there is no longer a need for theoretical discussions about what will happen if the proposal is adopted,” he concluded.
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Pashinyan’s proposal to Baku
