Opinion: 'The idea of a revolution is discredited — but not the protest'
On 4 October, the idea of a revolutionary uprising in Georgia may indeed have been discredited — but not the protest itself, says sociologist Iago Kachkachishvili.
According to him, the events of 4 October showed that neither a violent seizure of power nor a genuine victory for Georgian Dream in the municipal elections is realistic. The truth, he says, lies with the majority of voters who are demanding change through peaceful protest.
Kachkachishvili stressed that this is now the dominant view within Georgian society — and one that everyone will have to reckon with.
A mass anti-government rally that gathered in central Tbilisi on 4 October amid the municipal elections ended with an attempted storming of the presidential palace and police intervention.
Several people were injured, and around a dozen — including political leaders — were arrested.
The ruling Georgian Dream party claimed victory in the elections, which were boycotted by the opposition and a large part of society.
Iago Kachkachishvili:
“It’s important to note one crucial fact — thousands of people took to the streets, disproving the government’s claim that the protest movement had vanished, that it no longer existed, and that only a few hundred people were still taking part. The events of 4 October showed that the protest is alive, real, and always ready to resurface.
The mobilisation of tens of thousands of people was driven by expectations of something new — what was called a ‘peaceful revolution’. From my observations, many expected some kind of surprise to happen. Yet the overall expectation of instant change was low. Consequently, the level of nihilism and disappointment after 4 October cannot be very high either.
In any case, people did not take to the streets for radical or violent actions. The peaceful nature of the protest has not changed, despite the violent clashes that occurred. Protesters quickly moved on from the failure of 4 October, as they never placed great hopes on it to begin with.”
If we follow the narrative of a ‘peaceful revolution’, it might seem that some expected a section of the security forces to side with the protesters — that there would be a split within the power structures. It’s possible that the organisers of the rally even hinted at such a scenario, especially given that talk of divisions within the government has been circulating for quite some time.
As for the elections themselves, opposition-minded voters simply could not believe that change was possible through the ballot box. On the contrary, taking part in the vote was seen as legitimising the rule of Georgian Dream. Neither the voters nor much of the opposition managed to unite their efforts.
But this latest victory for Georgian Dream is a Pyrrhic one. I don’t think the ruling party has much to celebrate, since most Georgian voters hold opposition views. The government has won without the participation or approval of the majority. It represents not the will of Georgian society, but only that of its supporters. As a result, the crisis of legitimacy will only deepen.
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