Opinion: Georgian Dream will try to win Trump’s favor, but it will be an uphill battle
USA-Georgia ties future
Former U.S. Ambassador to Georgia (1998–2001) Kenneth Yalowitz comments on the future of U.S.-Georgia relations, suggesting that Georgian Dream will likely try to win Trump over by adopting his rhetoric and leveraging Washington lobbyists. However, he notes that this will be an uphill battle, given the pitfalls the ruling party has created for itself.
Kenneth Yalowitz’s comments
“Georgia is not a foreign policy priority for Trump and the current U.S. approach to Georgia is unlikely to change dramatically.
The EU is looking at more sanctions for Georgia and the Trump team may defer to Europe to lead the way.
Georgia has been a major recipient of US economic and military aid and its future size and may be uncertain. Indeed some in the new Administration want to eliminate USAID and/or place it back under the State Department for better control.
The Trump team surely will study GD policies that are critical of the US and inclined to Russia and then ask why we should continue to support this government with such large amounts of US taxpayer money?
Georgia has little to capture Trump’s interest when his attention will be focused elsewhere.
Secretary of State Rubio has a history of human rights and democracy support and is unlikely to endorse Georgia’s current direction.
The US Congress plays a major role in determining the size and direction of US foreign aid. Key Republican Members of Congress are on the record as critical of Georgia and favoring more sanctions. GD will probably try to appeal to Trump by using his rhetoric and employing Washington lobbyists to steer things in their direction. This, however, may be an uphill struggle given the holes GD has dug itself into.
The Trump administration may be less interested in democratic development programs but not jump to embrace a regime which has been critical of the United States and its institutions.
And with USAID’s future in question, the outlook for US economic and technical assistance to Georgia is uncertain. If GD continues to take Georgia in a less democratic and more anti-Western direction, US-Georgian relations could become even more strained.”
