Opinion from Baku: "The view that Azerbaijanis and Armenians cannot live together is being reinforced."
Message from the Russian peacekeeping contingent
A report from the Russian peacekeeping contingent about the March 5 incident in Karabakh provoked an angry reaction in Azerbaijan, the country’s Defense Ministry issued a statement deploring the contingent’s position. The Defense Ministry also threatened to take more decisive steps if the Armenian armed forces did not leave the country. According to political observer Shahin Jafarli, with the approach of 2025, when the peacekeepers’ stay in Karabakh ends, the opinion that Azerbaijanis and Armenians cannot live together is being reinforced.
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“It’s no secret to anyone who benefits from this situation”
In November 2025 the mission of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh will end, and under the terms of the tripartite statement, if one of the parties does not withdraw from the agreement six months before the expiration of this period, the period is automatically extended for another 5 years, until 2030.
“They will not allow wounds to heal, to decrease the level of mutual hostility.
One side has the idea that if they are not expelled, then it will not be possible to resolve the issue at the root, while the other thinks: if we become part of this country, we won’t survive.
It’s no secret who benefits from this situation, but again, perhaps for the millionth time, the sides make the same mistakes,” Jafarli added.
Russia against a checkpoint, US and EU for
Answering a question at a press conference in Baku about the possible appearance of an Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin road, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the sides should not take steps that contradict the requirements of the tripartite statement of November 10, 2020.
The head of the Atlas analytical center Elkhan Shahinoglu noted that, according to this logic, Azerbaijan cannot establish a checkpoint on the Lachin road:
“But Luis Bono, senior adviser to the US Secretary of State for the negotiation process in the Caucasus, also said in Baku that the States treat Baku’s interests related to security issues with understanding. In other words, the diplomat hinted at the exclusivity of Azerbaijan’s right to install a checkpoint on the Lachin road.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is of the same opinion. Brussels will also not be against the creation of a checkpoint on the notorious corridor.”
Shahinoglu also raised the issue of a possible meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Brussels:
“EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar met with Aliyev after he had a meeting with Pashinyan.
It is clear that Charles Michel is trying to organize a meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan. Now it remains to decide on the date of this meeting.
Baku’s only condition for holding the meeting is removing the tripartite format. In other words, without the participation of French President Emmanuel Macron.
As we remember, the fifth Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting, mediated by Brussels, was to be held in December last year. Pashinyan demanded Macron participate, Aliyev refused.
Charles Michel understands that the condition of Macron’s participation could put an end to this EU initiative, and so had to return to the previous tripartite summit model. Apparently Pashinyan has already agreed with this approach, otherwise the meeting would not take place.”
What happened?
On March 6, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a bulletin in which it accused Azerbaijan of the March 5 incident in Karabakh.
“At 10:00 on March 5, 2023, in the area of the settlement of Dyukyanlar, soldiers of the armed forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan fired at a car with law enforcement officers of Nagorno-Karabakh. Three men were killed and one who was in the car was injured. On the Azerbaijani side, the losses were two dead, one wounded. Through the efforts of Russian peacekeepers, the fighting was stopped.
The command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, together with the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides, is conducting an investigation,” the bulletin says.
Reply from Baku
On Monday evening, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry issued a response statement.
“We note with regret that on March 6, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation distorted the facts and disseminated false information in its bulletin about the armed incident that took place yesterday on the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road,” the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan maintained.
Recounting their version, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan said:
“Once again we warn that the transportation of military goods by Armenia to the territory of Azerbaijan, the dispatch and rotation of the personnel of the Armenian armed forces must be immediately and once and for all stopped, and Armenian troops must be completely withdrawn from the territory of our country. Otherwise, the Azerbaijani side will be forced to take absolutely necessary measures to disarm and neutralize illegal armed formations using all possibilities.
Such actions of Armenia are regarded as a continuation of military aggression.
The events that have taken place and the continuation of the illegal military transportation of Armenia to the sovereign territories of our country once again confirm the need to ensure the control regime on the Lachin road in the territory of Azerbaijan.”
New facts
On March 7, the news site caliber.az, which is close to the Azerbaijani authorities, published photos and videos that, according to a source, reflect the movement of a military convoy along the dirt road Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu, the same road where the March 5 shootout took place.
“According to the information received, the military transport of illegal Armenian armed formations is accompanied by the Russian peacekeeping contingent.
At the beginning of the column are two UAZ Patriot vehicles of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, followed by one tented Ural belonging to illegal Armenian armed groups, and a KamAZ with a water tank, and at the end of the column is an BTR-82A on which the Russian flag is hoisted.
The column is on the way to provide the posts of illegal Armenian armed groups with food, water and ammunition,” the report says.
New statement by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan
The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan issued another statement after the publication of the above photos and videos.
“Military transport is unacceptable and is a gross violation of the provisions of the tripartite statement and must be stopped immediately.
We reiterate that the supply of weapons, ammunition, mines, provisions and other military equipment to illegal Armenian armed formations located in the Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan, as well as the transportation and rotation of personnel to combat positions, is a gross violation of the sovereignty of Azerbaijan, the provisions of the tripartite statement and is a continuation of the policy of aggression.
If such actions are not immediately stopped, Azerbaijan will be forced to take the necessary measures to prevent such actions by Armenia and illegal Armenian military elements ionn the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan.
The events that have taken place once again confirm the necessity and validity of the establishment by Azerbaijan of a regime of control over the Lachin road,” the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry declared.
