"Nothing will change except the facade." What do experts think about the resignation of the Georgian Prime Minister?

On the resignation of the Prime Minister of Georgia

On January 29, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili voluntarily resigned for the second time, and once again, it was an unexpected development. The first instance of Garibashvili’s resignation occurred at the end of 2015. It is noteworthy that his second resignation coincides precisely with the “third entry” into politics by the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. The interconnection between these events raises questions about their implications for each other and their potential impact on the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024.

Irakli Garibashvili has served as the head of the government on two occasions. He initially assumed the role of Prime Minister in 2013 but abruptly left office two years later in 2015. Subsequently, he was reappointed to the same position on February 18, 2021, following the resignation of the incumbent Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia.

There is no doubt in Georgia that Garibashvili’s resignation is a personal decision by Ivanishvili. It is also understood that the next Prime Minister is likely to be the chairman of the Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze. Garibashvili, in turn, is expected to assume the vacant position of the party chairman.

According to the formal procedure, the honorary chairman of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, puts forth a candidate for the Prime Minister’s post to the political council of the party. Subsequently, with the consent of the political council, the candidate is presented to the parliament, where the majority also consists of members of the Georgian Dream.

Political analyst Vakhtang Dzabiraadze, commenting on the government change, told Interpress-Novosti that Bidzina Ivanishvili’s return to politics has removed Garibashvili from the equation but has not altered the political landscape. According to Dzabiraadze, there is currently no pressing need to replace Garibashvili, Kobakhidze, or anyone else. The expert notes that Ivanishvili has taken a proactive step, leaving open the possibility of changing the government again in the spring if deemed necessary.

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Vakhtang Dzabiraadze : “I expected a change of government later, but Ivanishvili is a rather cautious person, even too cautious. Naturally, in essence, nothing will change except the facade. This is due to the current situation in the country: strikes, evictions, etc. The team will change, and Georgian Dream will try to get some dividends. And if it doesn’t work, ‘Dream’ will be able to implement new changes at the end of May.”

Certainly, Garibashvili could also enact changes, but it would be more beneficial if Kobakhidze oversees their implementation.

I believe Ivanishvili places more trust in Garibashvili than in Kobakhidze. If Garibashvili assumes the role of party chairman, he will also lead the election headquarters. In the event that Georgian Dream emerges victorious in the 2024 elections, I do not discount the possibility of Garibashvili returning to the position of Prime Minister for the third time.

As per Dzabiraadze, Ivanishvili is aware that Georgian Dream will encounter significant challenges in the elections:

“Georgian Dream has already lost the elections. The main thing is whether the opposition wins or not. Georgian Dream will not win the elections, but the opposition can lose. The opposition has to act very correctly. Ivanishvili has taken some steps in advance.”

Dzabiraadze believes that Ivanishvili returned to politics to “save himself.”

“He came back not because he wants to fight corruption; it’s all a facade. He returned because he acknowledges the possibility that Georgian Dream may lose the elections. In this case, Ivanishvili needs guarantees of his untouchability, just as Saakashvili and Shevardnadze needed these guarantees.”

Korneli Kakachia, founder of the Institute of Georgian Politics, told Radio Liberty that neither Garibashvili nor Kobakhidze has a compromising attitude towards the opposition or the media. Therefore, the 2024 election campaign is likely to be conducted against the backdrop of aggressive rhetoric.