No revolution threat in North Ossetia this autumn
Political life in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania is expected to come to complete stall after the parliamentary elections due September 18.
The elections are to be held under the party and majority system. As to the parties, the outcome is predictable and is not to differ substantially from the elections results countrywide. 11 parties are to compete with the ruling United Ossetia in the absence of local parties in North Ossetia advancing national ideas.
The campaign in the majority constituencies looks much more energetic. According to Badri Gazzati, Free Perspective editor, the goal of the candidates in the majority constituencies is not the national parliament, but the post of the head of North Ossetia, vacant at the moment.
“All candidates are after it – some openly, some discreetly, Gazzati says.
Three leaders
They used to be three, but now they are two, after the Central Electoral Commission has refused to issue registration to Murat Aguzarov, the most outspoken critic, and the brother of the late republican head Tamerlan Aguzarov (in office from June 2015 to February 2016).
Murat Aguzarov was accused of having 14 false signatures among 16 000 collected in his support. Handwriting experts from Moscow confirmed the accusations.
Murat Aquzarov, Facebook foto“This is scandalous, because at least thirty percent would vote for Aguzarov – those who sympathize neither with the opposition, nor with the authorities, Badri Gazzati says.
He believes, that Aguzarov might has been expelled from the elections for political reasons.
Previously the authorities have been winning any elections with ease due to administrative pressure and voters indifference, but the situation has changed. After Tamerlan Aguzarov had passed away, Vyacheslav Bitarov, acting as the head, has not been confirmed to the post, and there is simply nobody around to exert administrative pressure, Gazzati says.
As Murat Aguzarov has failed to dispute the Central Electoral Comission ban, there are two favorites left – Arsen Fadzaev and Arthur Taymazov, both many times Olympic and world champions in wrestling.
Arsen Fadzaev has some political experience, including that of being a member of the national parliament. Arthur Taymazov is making his debut in politics, but he is being supported by the local authorities.
The three favorites represent the three major Ossetian subethnoses, which makes the situation even more complicated, Badri Gazzati claims.
“Fadzaev is a Digor, born in Chikola village, where the Muslim Ossetians prevail. Taymazov is a Kudar from Nogir village in South Ossetia with mainly Christian Ossetian population. Aguzarov is an Iron and represents the most numerous Ossetian subethnos.
No revolution threat in North Ossetia this autumn
Though the three leaders compete enthusiastically both in the majority constituencies and for the Notrh Ossetian head post, the intrigue is weak and to be resolved in Moscow.
If President Putin finds Vyacheslav Bitarov, acting as the head of the republic, competent enough – he will be nominated to the post on September 18. It is highly unlikely, that the local parliament all of a sudden opposes Moscow and rejects Bitarov.
Most of the experts in North Ossetia agree, that Bitarov will be the choice, to occupy the post for the next 5 years.
Vyacheslav Bitarov, Facebook photo“Certain opposition to Bitarov does exist, being represented by Murat Aguzarov, for example, and some people from the ex-leader Mamsurov circle. But none of them is ready to present himself as a serious opposition force – neither economic conditions, nor public opinion trends are adequate for that, Badri Gazzati says.
Murat Aguzarov in his FB appealed to the public after the ban not to sign any petitions or organize rallies in order to escape provocations, which also speaks in favor of a sedative scenario. Though he reserved the right for some actions – “after scrupluos discussion with the supporters.
Published: 08.09.2016
