"Moscow must accept the new realities in the region." A view from Baku
Moscow and Azerbaijan-Armenia border delimitation
Forty border posts have been installed along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, with the demarcation process progressing rapidly. Meanwhile, in Armenia, a march called ‘Tavush in the Name of the Homeland’ is taking place, with participants demanding the cancellation of both the demarcation process and the transfer of four bordering villages to Azerbaijan.
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The Azerbaijani JAMnews asked political commentator Haji Namazov to comment on the situation with demarcation and the possible consequences for the relationship between the two countries of the march heading to Yerevan.
Expert opinion
The march, titled “Tavush in the Name of the Homeland,” is aimed at “undermining all agreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which were finally reached without any involvement of intermediaries, as a result of direct negotiations,” says Namazov:
“The beginning of delimitation and demarcation of the state border between these two countries, which are far from friendly, is very valuable from a historical point of view. It is unlikely that there are other two countries that, after a short period following bloody wars, were able to reach a tête-à-tête agreement on resolving the issue of border demarcation.”
Even to someone not deeply versed in the history and intricacies of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it’s clear that the march to Yerevan cannot bring anything good to the Armenian people. This becomes even clearer as the action progresses. Supporters of former presidents and opposition figures are joining in. Armenian analysts themselves note that external assistance, particularly from Russia, is involved.
Let’s consider theoretically what could happen if the demands of the march participants were met. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has already addressed this today.
Now, let’s examine these potential processes from Azerbaijan’s perspective.
Suppose Pashinyan, under considerable pressure, accedes to the demands of the march participants and cancels all recent decisions regarding the delimitation of the border between Armenia’s Tavush region and Azerbaijan’s Gazakh district.
This would lead to armed clashes in this area, with the outcome predetermined by the imbalance of forces between the opposing sides. In other words, both the authorities and opposition in Armenia would lose out. It’s one thing when demarcation occurs peacefully, quite another when you suffer losses in manpower and, on top of that, ‘lose territory’, as march participants claim. Though in reality, no one really ‘loses’ anything—internationally recognized territories of Azerbaijan are being transferred back to Azerbaijan.
Another far-reaching consequence of this action could be the resignation of the Armenian government. But this is unlikely. The march is not particularly massive as of now. However, since we’re exploring possible scenarios, let’s touch on this one too.
In the event of mass participation and immense pressure on the authorities, Pashinyan could depart just as he came to power. What then? It’s easy to guess: initially, the same as what we’ve already discussed—border clashes in which Azerbaijan would not yield even with Russian assistance to the Armenian side.
What’s next? According to some political observers, if the Kremlin manages to install its own person as prime minister in Armenia, that politician would need to achieve something tangible to boost their ratings right away.
Under current regional conditions, this is quite problematic. What could Russia ‘gift’ its ally in Yerevan? Given the circumstances in the region, practically nothing. The factor of Turkey, which is a military ally of Azerbaijan, cannot be ignored. It’s unlikely that Moscow, given the current global geopolitical conditions, would want to confront both Baku and Ankara.
Based on the above, it can confidently be said that the march is doomed to fail. As for Moscow, it will have to come to terms with the new realities in the region. What is happening now on the border is advantageous for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
