Drone attack on Azerbaijan: authorities blame Iran, experts consider other possibilities
Атака беспилотника Ирана на Азербайджан
On 5 March, a drone attack took place in Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani authorities say the strike came from the territory of Iran and state that Iran bears full responsibility for the incident.
However, Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi rejected these accusations.
“Iran did not carry out strikes against Azerbaijan,” Gharibabadi said in comments published by the Iranian news agency Tasnim News Agency.
“We do not strike neighbouring countries. Iran’s policy is to target only the military bases of its enemies operating in the region and previously used for attacks on Iran, including bases of the United States and Israel,” he said.
Various versions of the incident have appeared on social media. Below is a brief overview of the opinions.
Official Baku: attack came from Iranian territory
According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, drones were launched from the territory of Iran towards Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic during the daytime on 5 March.
Official information states that:
- one drone struck the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport
- another drone fell near a school in the village of Shekerabad
The incident damaged the airport building and injured two civilians.
Authorities in Baku described the attack as an act that contradicts the norms and principles of international law and demanded explanations from Iran.
The foreign ministry said Azerbaijan reserves the right to take appropriate response measures. Mojtaba Dermichilou was summoned to the ministry.
The Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan issued a separate statement condemning the drone attack on civilian infrastructure and placing full responsibility on Iran.
“The Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan is preparing the necessary response measures to protect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our country, ensure the safety of civilians and civilian infrastructure, and these acts of attack will not go unanswered.”
On 28 February, United States and Israel launched large-scale missile strikes on military infrastructure and nuclear facilities in several cities across Iran. Many international analysts view these events as the beginning of a new war in the region. In response, Iran fired missiles at the territory of Israel and attacked 14 US military bases in countries of the Persian Gulf. The strikes also hit civilian infrastructure.
Iran–Azerbaijan: long-standing tensions
Resul Serdar, a commentator for Al Jazeera, notes that “Iran has long accused the government of Azerbaijan of turning the country into an Israeli intelligence base”.
Iran has also reacted with concern to a new transit project in the South Caucasus known as the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). The road would connect Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of Armenia. At the same time, the project has drawn the United States more actively into the region by granting it rights to implement the route on Armenian territory.
The route will pass close to Iran’s borders. Officials in Tehran have repeatedly voiced concerns about their security in connection with the project.
“In Tehran they accuse Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev of undermining Iran’s security from its northern border. Iran has repeatedly warned that if Azerbaijan does not stop, it will face consequences,” Serdar says.
In his view, Iran carried out the drone strike as a clear signal to the Azerbaijani government. “Whatever Iran says, the country is openly entering conflicts with neighbouring states in the Persian Gulf, with Turkey, and now with Azerbaijan,” the analyst said.
‘More facts are needed to determine the origin of the drone and the motives behind the attack‘
Public activist Giyas Ibrahim, who lives outside the country, expressed doubts about the official version. He wrote that the incident could be interpreted in different ways.
In his view, more facts are needed before conclusions can be drawn about the drone’s origin and the motives behind the attack.
Addressing the defence ministry, he wrote: “Before saying that this will not go unanswered, explain why Iran would strike Azerbaijan. I would assume that after the Karabakh issue ended for the authorities, they need another military confrontation to rally the population. A pretext was needed, and it has now been created by the Central Intelligence Agency and Mossad.”
Exiled journalist Azer Kazymzade does not rule out the possibility that a third party may stand behind the incident in an attempt to draw the region into a new conflict:
“Curse both the white and the black mullah, but why would he strike Nakhchivan? A similar case happened in Cyprus. Later, United Kingdom said it was not Iran. Something similar happened yesterday in Turkey. The fact that it happened here today also raises suspicions. This could be an attempt to draw Azerbaijan into the game or provoke Azerbaijanis in Iran.”
“It could have been Iran, and it may not have been accidental”
Fuad Gahramanli, deputy chairman of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party who lives in exile, said the incident may have been an attempt by Iran to strike strategic facilities in Azerbaijan.
He described it as a dangerous precedent for the region.
“Iran attempted to strike Nakhchivan International Airport with a drone. The first drone exploded near the airport building. The blast caused minor damage inside the main terminal. The second drone fell at a considerable distance from the building. The airport has currently suspended operations.
This shows that Iran could strike other strategic facilities on Azerbaijani territory. The military threat is beginning to extend to Azerbaijan as well.
Let us recall that before the start of the war by Israel and the United States against Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps repeatedly threatened Azerbaijan. Yesterday Iran also launched a ballistic missile towards Turkey, but air defence systems of NATO intercepted and neutralised it in the Mediterranean Sea.
Now a strike has taken place against Nakhchivan airport without any grounds.
All of this appears not to be accidental.
The situation is quite dangerous. Azerbaijan and Turkey should jointly assess what happened and make it clear to Tehran that this could have consequences for Iran.”
“Some Iranian military structures may be behind attempts to draw Azerbaijan into the conflict”
Public activist Rustam Ismayilbeyli, who lives outside the country, offered another version of events. In his view, some military structures in Iran may act with a degree of independence from the central authorities, which could have led to the incident.
“I do not believe the drone that struck Nakhchivan International Airport was an accident or something that went out of control. A drone that was not supposed to fly towards Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic somehow lost control, travelled thousands of kilometres and hit the airport exactly? The probability of that is extremely small.
In my view, despite the recent rapprochement between Iran and Azerbaijan, the strike was deliberate and there must be a reason for it.
From the first day of the war, Iran understood that the upper levels of its military and state structures could come under attack. It therefore shifted to a mosaic defence strategy. Under this strategy, army units on the ground retain freedom of action during wartime. Even if they lose contact with Tehran or receive no orders or authorisation, they can make decisions independently.
A few days ago, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said something similar in an interview. He stated that the army operates to some extent independently and does not remain under full control.
So despite some political rapprochement between the governments of Azerbaijan and Iran, different groups within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may still view Azerbaijan as a target. This could be the most likely explanation for the attack.
There is also another version. At present, Azerbaijan remains the only air corridor linking Asia and Europe. A strike on one of its airports may have aimed to disrupt that route and create a serious problem for the world.
In any case, I hope this will be the only impact of the war on Azerbaijan and that the country will manage to stay completely outside the conflict.”
Iran drone attack on Azerbaijan
