Ex-Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan: "The resumption of hostilities is becoming more likely"
Zulfugarov on Azerbaijani-Armenian relations
In early October, after the Prague summit, the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia announced that they were planning to sign a peace treaty within two months. November is coming to an end and only a month remains before the deadline. According to the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofik Zulfugarov, the resumption of hostilities is becoming more likely. “The probability of concluding a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia has crossed the zero mark and is rapidly vanishing,” he said.
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Only a month remains until the end of the two-month period, which was determined by the two countries to prepare for a peace treaty; but after the Prague summit, no progress was made on this score.
Former Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov is pessimistic about the two countries signing a peace treaty.
“The resumption of hostilities is becoming more likely”
“The New Year is coming soon… and the probability of concluding a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia has crossed the zero mark and is rapidly vanishing,” Zulfugarov said.
His rationale has to do with Armenia’s decision increase defense spending:
“This result was predetermined by the September decision of the Pashinyan government to increase defense spending for 2023 by 47% and continue financing anti-constitutional structures in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, allocating about $360 million for this.
After the approval of this budget, the sad fate of all the meetings that took place in Prague, Sochi, Washington, etc. was easily predictable.”
“External puppeteers have always been interested only in the process”
Zulfugarov believes that Armenia “chooses instead of peace the continuation of confrontation with Azerbaijan, or, to put it more simply, a war over its territorial claims on Karabakh.”
“And the “mediators”, as expected, supported the Armenian political caste’s decision. Yes, precisely the elites, because the Armenian people vote against this choice exclusively with their feet, leaving for anywhere. And those who remain ignore rallies, supporters of the continuation of the war, showing by their absence that they are not interested in the slogans of political outcasts,” he added.
“However, behind-the-scenes puppeteers explained to Pashinyan that his political “longevity” directly depends on whether saber-rattling will continue to lead Armenia to a complete national ruin, or someone else will do it for him.
I am sure that Pashinyan understands well that the outcome of the new stage of confrontation with Azerbaijan is predetermined. But external puppeteers have always been interested not in the result, but only in the process that allows them to influence the region,” he said.
“Political logic will force Azerbaijan to react”
Zulfugarov stressed that those “who vote for an almost 50% increase in the defense budget should be clearly aware that ‘war is war’ and Azerbaijan will be forced to remove calls for peace from its political lexicon, and replace them with those that were relevant to us before the 2020 war.”
“Political logic will force Azerbaijan to respond to challenges directed against our national interests in like manner:
- the desire to “poke your nose” into our policy of reintegration of Karabakh will lead to a response by force over Zangezur
- stop the provocative rhetoric from the likes of Vardanyan and Balasanyan, or we will have to close the Lachin corridor only in the direction of entry from Armenia, and after the announcement of an ultimatum on disarmament, conduct an anti-terrorist operation within three days.
All of the above is absolutely realistic and feasible,” Zulfugarov added.
Zulfugarov on Azerbaijani-Armenian relations
