China relations: A new balance in Azerbaijan's foreign policy

China’s interests in Azerbaijan

According to Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov, China’s global security initiatives and civilization perspective align with Azerbaijan’s overall views.

He believes that the full involvement of Chinese companies in the Middle Corridor could play a key role in shaping China’s interests in the region.

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JAMnews presents an analysis by Azerbaijani political commentator Farhad Mammadov on the increasing presence of China in the region, particularly in terms of developing relations between China and Azerbaijan.

“China is being mentioned more frequently both in official chronicles and in the media space. The recent visit of president’s assistant Hikmet Hajiyev to China and the high-level Chinese delegation’s visit to Baku for the Global Forum demonstrates active dialogue between the countries.“

A bit of history

The political scientist recalls that China maintained a unique stance in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, as China’s own foreign policy did not entail proactivity. “With Xi Jinping’s leadership, the global ‘One belt, one road’ initiative began, which entailed huge infrastructure investments,” he says.

“The infrastructure projects implemented by Azerbaijan logically fit into China’s interests in forming land connections with Europe. Baku carried out these projects entirely at its own expense and was not on Beijing’s credit list. By the way, this fact even deterred China from getting involved in the projects.

After the 2020 war, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy began to transform, but it remains based on the principles of balance and diversification. The balance system is changing from a format that includes Russia, Iran, Turkey, the West.

Today, China’s role in Azerbaijan’s balance system is only going to increase. To what extent? I assume that the growth of China’s role in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has the potential to reach the level of Azerbaijan’s relations with the USA.”

Common interests: Where Baku and Beijing align

Farhad Mammadov believes that at the global level, the initiatives of the Chinese leader on security and civilizational perception coincide with the general views of Azerbaijan.

“Azerbaijan has strategic partnership and alliance relations with China’s allies – Pakistan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Central Asian countries. China has allied relations with Azerbaijan’s neighbor Iran, and the elevation of Baku-Beijing relations could play a role in normalizing Baku-Tehran relations and increasing their predictability,” he notes.

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“Transportation, of course, is very important. During the visit of the president of Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan, the leaders witnessed the start of container transportations from China through Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan. The full involvement of Chinese companies in the Middle Corridor could play a key role in shaping China’s interests in the region.

The regional approach is also important for China. In the South Caucasus, China has the best relations with Georgia. This includes a strategic partnership, a free trade agreement, and investments. Relations with Azerbaijan are stable; Baku and Beijing consistently uphold the principle of territorial integrity.

But things are not so clear-cut with Armenia. After 2020, Armenia has contributed to an increase in India’s presence in the region. India is a country that, according to Western plans, is expected to play a decisive role in limiting China’s influence.

Alongside this, Western influence – that of the USA and the EU – is growing in Armenia. The visit of Nancy Pelosi to Armenia and her statement supporting democracy ‘from Taiwan to Armenia…’ are testament to this.”

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China can help diversify Azerbaijan’s economy by providing a new market for Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector. It can also assist with the development of industry and information technologies.

China does not set preconditions for enhancing the level of relations. For instance, we often hear from the West that the level of relations with Azerbaijan is conditional upon a peace treaty with Armenia. I find this attitude absurd.

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So, the Asian direction in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is growing. Azerbaijan has become the chair of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) for 2024-2026, which is the Asian equivalent of the OSCE.

It shows interest in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and in expanding relations with other countries and unions in Asia. In relations with the West, the Asian direction, and particularly China, serves as a strategic balance that holds potential and prospects.