‘Resumption of hostilities inevitable’ - ex Azerbaijani FM
Former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofiq Zulfuqarov says that in the coming days or weeks, the resumption of hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is inevitable, despite the fact that on the night of October 10, the parties signed an agreement in Moscow on a ceasefire and the continuation of peaceful negotiations.
At the talks in Moscow, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the combat zone in Karabakh. Negotiations will resume in the same format
Tofig Zulfugarov wrote on his Facebook page:
“Reflections on the published text [of the agreement].
So, a ceasefire has been reached, so far for ‘humanitarian purposes’ – the exchange of prisoners of war, the transfer of civilians and bodies of the dead.
Other parameters of the ceasefire regime are subject to agreement in the future. It may be possible to ban the regrouping of forces and assets, the parameters of no man’s land, the transfer of reserves from Armenia.
As for the likelihood of a resumption of the negotiation process, there is absolutely no specific text in which there is agreement on ‘adherence to the principles of settlement,’ which can be interpreted as you like.
1. The status quo has been changed both in the military-tactical respect and in the political
2. De facto Azerbaijan has proved that it is able to use its armed forces against [Armenia] and is an alternative to the monopoly of the ‘co-chairs’
3. Russia and Turkey today have the same political positions in the ability to defend their allies using force
4. It is clear to Armenians that Russia will not fight for them and that Russian society does not accept this path
5. Russia has not reached the desired level of ‘punishment’ of the [pro]-Soros Pashinyan regime
Conclusions:
1. Azerbaijani society does not support the idea of suspending hostilities
2. The country’s leadership will not take the path of ignoring [public opinion], as this will lead to a serious internal political crisis
3. Russia does not yet see the real results of the ‘lesson for Pashinyan’ [meaning the desire to integrate with Europe, repeatedly declared by the Armenian Prime Minister – JAMnews], and therefore will not eliminate the threat of renewed hostilities
4. Pashinyan will start a campaign to advertise his role ‘in the great victory’ and thus will provoke a new surge of hostilities.
Based on the above, further resumption of hostilities is inevitable in the coming days or weeks.”
Tofig Zulfugarov worked as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan from March 5, 1998 to October 26, 1999, as well as the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Azerbaijan to Latvia (2005-2010) and Estonia (2007-2015).
