Azerbaijani plane said downed in Russia

Today is a day of mourning in Azerbaijan. The country is grieving the victims of the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, which was on a Baku-Grozny flight and crashed in Aktau.

Later in the evening, the first semi-official version of the tragic plane crash, which resulted in 38 deaths, was announced. On the pro-government Telegram channel “Caliber,” citing “sources close to the government,” it was reported that the Azerbaijani passenger plane was downed by a Russian air defense system.

Updated: 38 killed in Azerbaijani plane crash in Aktau

There were 62 passengers and 5 crew members on board. The 32 survivors have been taken to hospitals in Aktau

Wounded plane crash victims brought to Azerbaijan

On the morning of December 25, an Embraer 190 plane, flying from Baku to Grozny, the capital of the Russia‘s Chechen Republic deviated to the Kazakh city of Aktau for unknown reasons and crashed, 3 kilometers short of the airport. As a result of the crash, 38 people were killed, and 29 others were injured. There were 62 passengers and 5 crew members on board.

As of today, the identities of 25 of the deceased have been confirmed. Three of them are crew members — two pilots and a flight attendant.

DNA analysis is being conducted to identify 13 bodies.

12 of the surviving passengers are being transported to Azerbaijan today. It was reported that 7 individuals, in stable condition, will be transported on a regular flight, while 5 passengers, whose condition is assessed as moderate, will be flown on a special Azerbaijani Emergency Ministry aircraft, escorted by a separate medical team.

Unfounded versions of the crash causes

Today, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov held a phone conversation with his Kazakh counterpart Murat Nurtleu regarding the investigation into the causes of the plane crash. On the same day, Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov discussed the progress of the investigation with his Kazakh counterpart Olzhas Bektenov.

Official sources have not yet made statements about the progress of the investigation or named possible causes.

In the initial hours after the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) stated that the tragedy could have been caused by the plane colliding with a flock of birds. Another version suggested that the plane’s change in course could have been due to bad weather in Grozny. However, these versions were quickly discarded.

After the statement made today to the media by the president of AZAL, Samir Rzaev, the version suggesting that the cause of the crash could have been a malfunction of the aircraft was also ruled out. According to him, the plane underwent a major overhaul in October, and there can be no question of any malfunction.

In fact, after footage from the crash site was shared on social media, along with a video where surviving passengers recounted the moments of the tragedy, the most discussed version became that the plane was shot down.

In the video showing the remains of the plane, numerous punctures resembling shrapnel marks can be seen on the fuselage.

Zaur Mamedov, one of the passengers who survived the crash, recounting the moment of the tragedy, says that two explosions were heard, after which the plane became unmanageable.

Did Russia down Azerbaijani plane?

On the evening of December 26, the pro-government Telegram channel Caliber not only confirmed the possibility of the plane being shot down but also stated that it was downed by a Russian air defense system.

“According to reliable government sources, Caliber.Az has learned that preliminary results of the investigation indicate that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, traveling from Baku to Grozny, was subjected to an attack near Grozny, using the Russian air defense system ‘Pantsir-S.’

Furthermore, as a result of the use of electronic warfare systems by the Russian side, the communication system of the Azerbaijani aircraft was completely paralyzed. This caused the plane to disappear from radar in Russian airspace and was only re-established in the Caspian Sea area,” the message reads.

Caliber.Az further noted that according to Russian sources, during the flight over Chechnya, Russian air defenses were attempting to down Ukrainian UAVs.

“The head of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, confirmed the fact of a drone attack on Grozny on the morning of December 25, stating that there were no casualties or damage. In this case, the Russian side should have closed its airspace to civilian aircraft, which, however, was not done. Why a no-fly zone was not declared over Chechnya is a big question.

As we know, Grozny airport did not approve the plane’s landing. Moreover, our aircraft was also denied landing permission at airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody. The disoriented crew, subjected to air defense fire and electronic warfare systems, was redirected to the Kazakh city of Aktau. It can be assumed that this recommendation was given with one goal: for the plane to crash into the Caspian Sea, with all witnesses perishing and the plane sinking. However, this is our assumption.

Alternative versions, spread by Russian media, are deliberate disinformation intended to mislead public opinion. Videos from the plane’s cabin show that two passengers were injured by shrapnel. All witness statements, including those about explosions heard outside the aircraft, point to the operation of air defense systems.

For the Azerbaijani side, involved in the investigation, the situation is absolutely clear. No one claims it was done intentionally. However, given the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to admit to downing the Azerbaijani plane, issue an official apology to the Azerbaijani people, and conduct a full investigation, with all responsible parties held accountable,” the publication writes.

Expert opinion

According to political analyst Farhad Mammadov, the fact that preliminary information has been made public suggests that Baku expects official recognition from Russian authorities of the incident, followed by steps such as an apology and compensation.

“In recent years, there have been incidents in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, and Azerbaijan has issued apologies. There is nothing shameful in this. As a result, the quality of relations did not suffer.

Now, it is Russia’s turn.

It would be wise for Moscow not to delay its actions, not to tie them to the official results of the investigative commission’s work. This would make life easier for both itself and Kazakhstan, where the plane crash occurred.

If Moscow denies responsibility, it will undoubtedly affect the quality of relations,” Mammadov notes.

Political analyst Shahin Jafarli believes that even if the Azerbaijani plane was accidentally downed by a Russian air defense system, there are still unclear aspects.

“If the opposing side had admitted to accidentally downing the plane, apologized, and covered the damages, this could have been somewhat understood.

However, there can be no satisfactory explanation for why the plane was not allowed to land on Russian territory after the incident.

This step is unfriendly towards Azerbaijan and completely contradicts agreements between the two countries, international civil aviation conventions, and humanitarian principles.

I don’t know who said it first, but it is the plain truth: Russia doesn’t have allies, it only has vassals or enemies…” he wrote on social media.