Anxiety in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali over protests in Tbilisi

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Tbilisi

Anxiety in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali

The protests in Tbilisi have caused concern in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. A new government may soon come to power and be ready to open a “second front,” local politicians and experts say.

These sentiments seem to have been fueled by statements from Moscow, as high-ranking officials in the Russian government made statements about expected provocations and the threat of war.

Large-scale protesting began in Georgia on March 6 following the intention of the Georgian government to pass a law “on foreign agents.”

The three-day public protest forced the ruling Georgian Dream party to withdraw the bill on transparency of foreign influence.

Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is concerned about possible risks in relation to Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared the events in Tbilisi with Maidan in Kyiv. He said the protests against the bill were just a pretext for a forceful change of government.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that Georgia is losing its sovereignty due to American pressure and that it was the United States that organized the protests in Tbilisi.

A video from the Tbilisi protesting, where one young person mentions Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, has become popular in Abkhazian Telegram channels and chats:

“I was born and raised in Tbilisi, but I come from Eredvi, Tskhinvali region, my land is occupied… The main goal of my life is to return and expel the occupiers. Everyone must return to Gagra, Sukhumi, Tskhinvali, Eredvi,” Irakli Pavlenishvili says, and begins to chant: “Sukhumi! Tskhinvali!”

The threat of a "second front", anti-Russian sanctions, and reforms that never happened – discussion in Abkhazia

JAMnews editor Inal Khashig and historian Astamur Tania discuss the problems of Abkhazia, including the domestic political crisis and the Georgian-Abkhaz negotiation process

A video of the speech circulated in Abkhazian social networks with comments that “Georgians are going to war” following.

The main Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan also reacted to the video:

“Demonstrators in Tbilisi shout: ‘Sukhumi! Sukhumi!’ In fact, from the very beginning it was clear that this excitement was needed in order to open a second front with us,” she wrote on Telegram.

What caused the fear of a “second front”?

Conflictologist Paata Zakareishvili believes the ruling party creates for itself the image of the only Georgian “peace party”:

“It’s a paradox, but the pro-Russian Georgian Dream very successfully appeals to the world there, which, for example, the pro-Western Georgian opposition is incapable of doing.”

“I didn’t pay much attention to this performance, because during these three days about 300 people came out and it’s obvious that everyone was saying different things. Only one speaker mentioned Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. No tragedy happened with this statement alone. Moreover, this is such a painful topic for Georgia that I am surprised that only one person mentioned it,” adds Zakareishvili.

He says the response to this video raises questions: “For me, this statement is not as strange as the fact that it was noticed in Sukhumi, in Tskhinval, and even in Russia.”

Anxiety in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali

Why is Tbilisi silent?

So far, official Tbilisi has not reacted in any way either to the fears of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali or to the Kremlin’s statements.

It is apparently a capitulation, and the only thing the government can get in return is Russian TV personality’s Vladimir Solovyov’s praise of Georgian Prime Minister Garibashvili, Buka Petriashvili, senior fellow at the Rondeli Foundation, says.

Petriashvili believes that the Georgian government deliberately spreads propaganda of fear of a “second front” and manipulates it perfectly, including in the occupied regions, referring to the Georgian government’s stance that is the only anti-war force in recent Georgian history:

“Years ago, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs made official statements, but now we see that this is not happening either. This is due to the fact that the mechanism of foreign policy activity has been violated. There is simply no policy. The approach is this: no need to answer, no need to react.

The Georgian government must once again say what it has already stated: ‘It will return Sukhumi and Samachablo only by peaceful means.’ It would not be difficult to repeat,” Buka Petriashvili believes:

“I hope that there are closed channels of communication between the government of Georgia, the de facto government of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali regime, and this message got there at the right time.”

Anxiety in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali