Abkhaz authorities fear another coup d'état
People’s rally in Sukhum
The Abkhaz opposition is campaigning for citizens to attend a May 30 “People’s Rally” in Sukhum. It is assumed that at least 5,000 people will gather for the protest just 100 meters from the presidential palace.
Abkhaz authorities fear another coup d’état — the third in the last ten years.
Rally and anti-rally
The opposition is demanding the resignation of the government headed by Alexander Ankvab and the abolition or imposition of a moratorium on a number of bills, including those involving the transfer of the Pitsunda estate to Russia and permission to build and sell apartments to foreigners. If President Aslan Bzhaniya complies with these requirements by May 30, the rally will be cancelled.
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But according to information from the presidential palace, Bzhaniya does not intend to make concessions. On the contrary, on the day of the rally he will mobilize his supporters for an “anti-rally”.
These measures can hardly be called excessive, given that in 2014 and 2020 similar rallies ended with the storming of the presidential palace and the resignation of the head of state, which Bzhaniya and his associates fear.
It is precisely the fears that the opposition rally may turn into an attempt to overthrow the government that prompted the Public Chamber of Abkhazia to issue this warning:
“Respecting the constitutional right of political and public organizations to hold meetings, rallies and other actions, the Public Chamber of the Republic of Abkhazia calls on the organizers of the upcoming rally, in strict accordance with applicable law, to ensure the peaceful nature of the event, bearing in mind the inadmissibility of riots that could lead to a clash with law enforcement.”
People’s rally in Sukhum
“Master of revolution”
Akhra Avidzba, commander of the Pyatnashka international brigade, expressed his support for the “People’s Rally”.
In January 2020, it was he who led the storming of the presidential palace, after which former president Raul Khajimba resigned. Aslan Bzhaniya, who was the leader of the opposition at the time, was then elected president.
Avidzba was appointed Assistant to the President for International Relations, but a year later he had a confrontation with the president and resigned “due to the loss of faith in our common cause and the further expediency of working in a political team that contradicts its declarative statements and in reality does not take the necessary actions.”
Later Avidzba and five of his subordinates from Pyatnashka were arrested by the Abkhaz authorities. Initially they were charged with attempting a coup d’etat, but the charge was changed to “illegal possession of weapons.” Avidzba was sentenced to three years of probation.
Three options: consensus, assault, dialogue
At the moment there are several possible scenarios for the development of events:
The opposition will hold its own rally, reach a compromise with the authorities, and the government of Alexander Ankvab will be dismissed.
The opposition will hold a rally, but will not be able to agree with the authorities, and the protesters will go to the presidential palace and try to take it by storm with a further demand for the resignation of the president. If the assault succeeds, then Bzhaniya will have almost no chance to remain in the presidential chair.
Ardzinba will become the undisputed favourite in the early presidential elections. If the assault fails, Bzhaniya actually receives carte blanche to implement all his plans from denationalization of energy to Pitsunda.
Or the opposition will hold its rally, after which its supporters, having shown that they will not allow the authorities to realize their plans, will go home. And the authorities, having received a signal about real mood in Abkhazian society, will perhaps begin a constructive dialogue with the opposition.
People’s rally in Sukhum
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