Conflict analyst’s view on clash between Georgia’s former and current prime ministers
According to conflict analyst Paata Zakareishvili, members of Georgia’s ruling team have more sympathy for former prime minister Irakli Garibashvili than for the current prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze. Zakareishvili links the activity of the jailed Garibashvili and his recent letters to this sense of his own political strength.
Zakareishvili believes Garibashvili may have come to believe that Kobakhidze could lose the next election. Kobakhidze, meanwhile, may have realised that even a former prime minister in prison has more political influence than he does.
However, the conflict analyst believes Garibashvili should set out his position more clearly in his letters.
On 1 September, Irakli Garibashvili issued another letter from prison. He called on government officials to answer questions about the circumstances surrounding the death of former human rights defender Lazare Jorbenadze.
On 3 September, law enforcement officers questioned Irakli Garibashvili in prison as part of the investigation into Jorbenadze’s death. The prosecutor’s office said Garibashvili’s public doubts about the circumstances of Jorbenadze’s death had no factual basis. It added that the former prime minister had failed to provide investigators with any significant new evidence.
Paata Zakareishvili: “Irakli Garibashvili’s letters should contain more facts, and everything should be made more specific, with names given. When he spoke about Lazare Jorbenadze, he clearly said that Jorbenadze had been murdered, not that he had taken his own life. This means Garibashvili knows something and wants to see the case through. But if he cannot prove it, this issue will be discredited.
However, his latest letters increasingly resemble toasts. It seems he has enjoyed the impact his letters have had. For example, Mamuka Mdinaradze left politics, the minister of regional development. It did not happen because of the letters, though. Mdinaradze simply failed to silence Garibashvili or rein him in.
I am deeply convinced that Kobakhidze and Mdinaradze decided to destroy the Garibashvili ‘clan’ before the 2028 parliamentary elections. Then it suddenly became clear that Garibashvili was not alone and that politically killing him would not be so easy. Garibashvili received a signal that he was more popular within the ruling Georgian Dream party than Kobakhidze. He sensed his strength and now wants to harness it. He realised that Kobakhidze could lose the upcoming election.
Garibashvili followed the decision of ruling party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili and went to prison. Yet it suddenly turned out that this was not enough for Kobakhidze and Mdinaradze. Garibashvili feels that Kobakhidze and Mdinaradze are afraid of him. We should also remember that Georgian Dream Secretary General Kakha Kaladze has remained in the shadows, watching everything, including developments in Ukraine. He is watching and sees that Irakli Kobakhidze is very weak, and that Garibashvili could take the entire team with him before the election.
Kobakhidze has discovered that even Garibashvili, sitting in prison, is stronger than him. Garibashvili has a great many supporters in the regions. As a political figure, he is weak, but he has built a very strong, old-school system of corruption based on the principle: ‘I eat, and I let you eat too.’
Irakli Kobakhidze has been ‘sidelined’ and has no allies. So what could happen today — his resignation — will happen later, probably by 2028. Unless Bidzina Ivanishvili calls an early election.”
Garibashvili and Kobakhidze
