"Ivanishvili's decision to return has personal motives, fears and risks" - Georgian political scientist

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s return

Political analyst Gia Khukhashvili in an interview with Interpressnews assessed the return of the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili to politics and said that the leaders of the party will not sleep well as they do not know “who he will attack and who he will put through the meat grinder”. Khukhashvili said he sees personal motives, fears and risks in Bidzina Ivanishvili’s decision to return to politics.

Khukhashvili does not see political logic in Ivanishvili’s return and gives two reasons why, in his opinion, Ivanishvili made the decision. The political analyst believes that with this step Ivanishvili, on the one hand, is trying to “insure” his personal well-being, and on the other hand, to return stability to the system “by switching to manual control mode”.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Georgian Dream, has returned to politics for the third time. He was elected honorary chairman at the congress of the Georgian Dream party he founded.

Ivanishvili called global challenges one of the reasons for his return. According to him, Georgia is facing them today – the geopolitical situation around the country has become more complicated and therefore the challenges have increased.

Ivanishvili also pointed out that there is a danger of confrontation within the ruling team itself.

Gia Khukhashvili: “There is no political logic in Bidzina Ivanishvili’s decision. Georgian Dream does not need to return to politics for electoral purposes. Therefore I see only personal motives, personal worries and risks here. This may have been the determining factor for this decision.

As for his personal reasons, I distinguish two main blocks. He himself indirectly spoke about why he is coming back and even confessed to some extent. However, he tried to change the context. I will try to present the correct context of what motivated his decision.

First, Ivanishvili has issues with his personal well-being and security. He seems to have serious concerns about this and has decided to prevent it by gaining political immunity in the future. It would be strange if someone would think of imposing sanctions on the chairman of the ruling party of a partner country. But if he had maintained informal governance, as he has so far, then [imposing sanctions on Ivanishvili] could have become absolutely real not today but tomorrow. So with this step he prevented it, protected his own well-being.

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Don’t think this is his last move. Today he may be honorary chairman, and tomorrow we may see him as prime minister, or, as I think, he sees himself more as president. In this capacity, he would be most comfortable running the country — you don’t have to do the day-to-day work, but you are the head of state and can control everything on the phone.

There is another reason, which Ivanishvili also insinuated today. Certain interest groups have formed in the Georgian Dream which have earned a lot of money. And big money, as we know, breeds big ambitions. It seems that it has become very problematic to control these people from a distance. Consequently, Ivanishvili faced the risk of weakening and losing power within the system. Not so much from the party point of view, but from the point of view of the interests of these groups who no longer need his money because they have their own. Consequently, controlling these groups became problematic, so it was decided to restore stability to the system by switching to “manual control” mode.

Ivanishvili now has a legitimate place at the negotiating table and I expect the situation to change. One or two people will be punished and he will start to restore his control in manual mode. He will probably arrest someone as well. I don’t necessarily mean officials.

Interest groups are much more serious. There could be a million possibilities here. I think these are the two main motives and both of them are related to his personal well-being and security. Today, he is addressing his own well-being and safety, not a state issue or any political issue. Therefore, this decision is his personal decision.

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s return

Today the leaders of the Georgian Dream will sleep very badly. They will not sleep well because they do not know “who he will attack and who exactly he will put through the meat grinder”. They all realize this. Everyone expects the worst.

In general, Ivanishvili’s decision is good for the country. Because shadow rule is very harmful for the country. If you run a country, you had better be institutionalized. If you do something, you have to be responsible. It is not serious that Ivanishvili is guilty of something and we are organizing actions against Garibashvili, who is just a letter carrier and a man of misunderstanding. This is all very bad for the state.

It is also good for the opposition, as the real goal has already been defined. Thanks to this step of Bidzina Ivanishvili, political order should return to the country to some extent. He has become a kind of religion — a man who was everywhere and at the same time nowhere. But politics is not a religion. Let’s get back to the ground and have real, healthy politics.

I don’t think there will be any major changes. Moreover, this is about the long term game. There is still a lot of time left before the election. There will probably be some fluctuations today, but these fluctuations will not be significant. You will not find a person in Georgia who thinks that Bidzina Ivanishvili has left politics. So what has happened is what we already knew about.

Has anything changed? Did anyone here think that Bidzina had really left [politics]? No one thought so. Even in a remote village, if you ask a person who doesn’t even turn on the TV, they will tell you that Bidzina is the breadwinner. Now he is not only a breadwinner, but also the chairman of the ruling party, even an honorary one.”

Bidzina Ivanishvili’s return