Why does Kremlin need Ramzan Kadyrov

Violations of law and suppression of human rights and freedoms have become so wide-scale in Chechnya, that even the Kremlin has started reacting to them.

Russian “Novaya Gazeta newspaper (New Newspaper) reads: Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, has violated the fundamental conditions of the contract with the Kremlin, he actually led Chechnya out of the Russian legal field and turned the republic into a separatist regime under his sole control. And now, time has come to ‘take stock’ of merits and achievements of Kadyrov as an ‘efficient manager’.

As it is pointed out in the “Novaya Gazeta article, the primary objective of this ‘contract with the Kremlin’ was to gain Chechnya’s full loyalty. The following ‘two key tasks’ were set before Kadyrov:

• to  fight against the Chechen separatists/ the terroristic underground;
• to restore the republic’s economy and the infrastructure, destroyed by two wars.

Chechen authorities were delegated unprecedented powers and billions of cash infusions.

Until recently, the Kremlin highly evaluated the efficiency of contract performance. However, in March, the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, was summoned to the Kremlin, where, as the “Kavkazskiy Uzel reports, he was demanded to ensure Chechnya’s compliance with the ‘Russian laws in all spheres of life’.

According to the “Novaya Gazeta newspaper, the most serious punishment was a ‘credibility crisis’, when, after Nemtsov’s murder, Kadyrov was no longer put though to Vladimir Putin.

Nevertheless, according to the “Kavkazskiy Uzel online media outlet, the majority of Russian political analysts share the opinion that Kadyrov runs no risk of being dismissed. Why? The “Kavkazskiy Uzel” has several answers to this questions.

How to rule Chechnya without Kadyrov?

“The situation in Chechnya remains the same [as it was before Putin-Kadyrov meeting]. The Kremlin has no idea, how to rule Chechnya without Kadyrov and how to ensure that the situation in Chechnya doesn’t affect the entire North Caucasus. It’s not the matter of liking or dislike for Kadyrov. If Kadyrov couldn’t rule the country tomorrow, it will be Putin’s problem, says Aleksey Malashenko, a member of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s scientific board. 

In his opinion, Kadyrov has always taken advantage of the aforesaid situation. The situation could be different if Kadyrov acts tactlessly and petulantly, but we shouldn’t expect such turn of events, says Malashenko.

“The Kremlin is unlikely to dismiss Kadyrov from the post of the head of Chechen Republic, because in this case it will be also necessary to remove the team of the head of the republic, believes Dmitry Oreshkin, a political analyst.

“Why can’t we leave well enough alone – Kadyrov is explicitly demonstrating an absolute loyalty, drawing some crazy results at the elections…yes, the task has been accomplished, but that’s not ‘the Moor has done his duty, let him go’ case: who is going to control the situation? The regime has been tailored exclusively to Kadyrov. So, if someone else comes into power and tries to carry out any reforms, the system will slide downward, Oreshkin told the “Kavazskiy Uzel media outlet.

He believes that Kadyrov is beneficial for the Kremlin and he could possibly resign only in case Putin leaves.

Beyond the law

Kadyrov has recently publicly compared drunk drivers with the ‘suicide bombers’, who have a mine on their belt, and ordered to shoot down addicts in the republic. Later, the prosecutor of Chechnya said, Kadyrov’s words were ‘quoted out of context’. 

However, Dmitry Oreshkin, a political analyst, believes that such statements prove that a sort of ‘mafia’ is being formed in the republic.

“What makes a bigger state different from mafia is that there are written laws: whether they are good or not, that’s another issue, but they set formal limits: the cans and cannots. Actually, I have no doubt that Kadyrov is well-aware that people can’t be shot down in the country. But that concerns a state, whereas Kadyrov has turned his republic into something similar to mafia, where the law is ‘a kingpin’s’ word. Today it’s suitable this way, whereas tomorrow – the other way, and there are no guarantees that one’s rights will be safeguarded, said Oreshkin.

“There is no people’s will, but rather the leader’s will…he has personalized several functions all at once-the executive, legislative, judicial and media powers. He is a Commander-in-Chief, a cult and sacred power, all rolled in one.

Migrants from Chechnya flatly refuse to return to home

It’s quite natural that the indigenous residents of Chechnya are trying to leave the country, says Aleksey Malashenko.

“The Chechen men, especially the youth, are double-natured guys. They want to live more freely, beyond Ramzan’s control, but, at the same time, they want Kadyrov’s guarantee that if they’re offended, he will come to their defence,said Malashenko.

“The Chechens, who immigrated to Europe, refuse to return home, but they are facing cohabitation problems there too, he said.

“In the 90s, the European delegations were asking me: ‘Who are the Chechens’?, whereas now, there is a different question: ‘What’s to be done with them’? My understanding is that the young generation will adapt to new reality, but it will be a painful process: they will have to give up on their mindset: you can’t behave in Sweden and Norway the same way as in Grozny, Argun or even Moscow. However, so far the Chechens don’t fit into and are unwilling to adjust themselves to the living principles of the European countries, says Malashenko.

Kadyrov and his entourage live based on the soviet-time special service principles, believes the republic’s Interior Ministry official, who refused to tell his name. 

“It’s the so-called ‘aquarium’ principle, when everything that concerns personally Kadyrov, his next of kin and the individuals from his inner circle, never goes beyond the confined area…He has many enemies, including the deadly ones. Once Kadyrov slightly loosens his positions, all that will surely show up. Everyone knows that there are continuous affronts and humiliations, and that shouldn’t be disregarded either. So far, Ramzan, so to say, ‘keeps abreast of the developments’, but the situation will sooner or later slip out of his control. It’s inevitable. And that’s when the developments will become absolutely unpredictable, he told the “Kavkazskiy Uzel online media outlet.

JAMnews background information:

• Ramzan Kadyrov has been the leader of the Republic of Chechnya since March 2007 
• Based on official results of October 18, 2016 election of the head of the republic, he was elected for the third term.
  
• Earlier, the republic was ruled by Ramzan Kadyrov’s father, Ahmat Kadyrov, who was assassinated in 2014.

Published:10.09.2016