Coalition government, reforms, then presidential elections — a solution for Abkhazia's political deadlock?
Way out of Abkhazia’s crisis
Tengiz Djopua, a member of Abkhazia’s Public Chamber, has proposed a roadmap to resolve the republic’s ongoing political crisis, triggered by plans to ratify a controversial Russian investment agreement.
The plan includes the resignation of the president, formation of a temporary coalition government, postponement of presidential elections, and reforms to the political system.
While the proposal has garnered attention, it faces significant counterarguments. Moscow has yet to issue an official response, but semi-official statements have raised concerns in Abkhazia.
Abkhazia remains economically and politically dependent on Russia, which recognized its independence in 2008. All political forces in Abkhazia publicly emphasize loyalty to Russia as a strategic partner.
A detailed analysis follows.
What’s happening in Abkhazia. Mass protests erupted in Abkhazia on November 15, with demonstrators demanding the withdrawal of a controversial Russian investment agreement from parliament. Opponents label the deal as exploitative and mockingly refer to it as “benefits for oligarchs.” The protests escalated into the occupation of the presidential administration and calls for the resignation of President Aslan Bzhania, who has so far refused to step down.
Three days into the crisis, several hundred protesters remain outside the government complex, vowing to stay until Bzhania resigns. President Bzhania is reportedly in his native village of Tamysh, where he convened a cabinet meeting on November 16. He maintains that government operations continue under control.
The opposition’s Coordination Council is deliberating ways to resolve the deadlock. Proposals include urging parliament to hold an emergency session to revoke the president’s powers and annul the contentious investment agreement, which sparked the protests.
Details on the agreement are provided below.
Commentary
Tengiz Djopua, a member of Abkhazia’s Public Chamber: “In the current situation, the best option is:
- The resignation of the president;
- The formation of a temporary coalition government with a new prime minister;
- The postponement of the presidential elections;
- The reform of the political system;
- The redistribution of powers between the executive and legislative branches to create balance and hold all parties accountable;
- The change of the electoral system from a majoritarian to a mixed system;
- The strengthening of local government authorities;
- The appointment of elections for a new parliament and president.
Until the elections, an anti-crisis government should function.
Otherwise, this political chaos will never end, and we will not have any normal life.”
Counter-arguments to this plan
Commentary from social media:
“I categorically disagree with the points and proposals of Tengiz Djopua. A mixed electoral system in a country with a population of 200,000? Strengthening local authorities in a country with such a vast income disparity between regions?
The only thing that is truly needed is a RESPONSIBLE attitude from citizens towards the process of electing deputies and the president. This would solve many of the problems faced by Abkhazia, at least a significant portion of them.
Go to the elections, study the candidates’ programs, and don’t vote based on family ties or for money. The 17% turnout in the parliamentary elections is what led to the current situation.”
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“According to the classic coup scenario, the cabinet of ministers should be declared deposed, and a new temporary government should be formed, which would immediately begin its work.
However, the opposition cannot ignore Moscow, which is likely to not recognize the new government.
The only alternative is to wait for Aslan Bzhania’s voluntary resignation. But even that seems unrealistic — Moscow has not given its consent. The situation is deadlocked.”
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“In reality, the population of Abkhazia has shown a certain neutrality towards the political crisis. No one was eager to defend Aslan Bzhania, but neither are the masses rallying behind the opposition.
If the people follow the opposition, no objections from Moscow will help the government. However, the fact remains that on November 15, only an active part of political organizations’ supporters were gathered near the parliament, not all of Abkhazia.”
Russian State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin: “Can a state exist if, in one generation, the crowd topples the government for the third time?”
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared non-interference in Abkhazia’s internal affairs and advised Russian citizens to refrain from traveling to the region. However, the statement clearly condemned the actions of the opposition:
“Opposition forces, unfortunately, did not find it possible to resolve their disagreements with the legitimate authorities through civilized, respectful dialogue and went beyond the legal framework, provoking an escalation of the conflict… It is evident that such scenarios do not contribute to attracting foreign investments.“
Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and Eurasian Integration, wrote on social media:
“What is happening in Abkhazia cannot leave me indifferent. It is a disgrace that, just months before the next presidential elections, an attempted coup is being staged under the pretext of (non-)ratifying the agreement between Abkhazia and Russia.
This agreement can be scrutinized or searched for hidden flaws, but it contains nothing that was not intended to help Abkhazia attract investment and create jobs for the youth of the republic, who are forced to seek work in neighboring Russia.
If, in such a short historical period, a government is overthrown for the third time before the eyes of one generation, can such a state be considered established?”
There is another opinion within the Russian State Duma.
Sergey Markov, a State Duma deputy and political analyst, stated:
“The Abkhazian revolt is not against Russia, but against Russian oligarchs. More specifically, it is against the Sochi-based developers.
The people fear that the new law will allow Russian oligarchs to buy up all the coastline, with the government being bribed. In the end, the people will be left with nothing. The last thing they have, the land that belongs to everyone, will be taken from them.
Such an Abkhazian revolt against oligarchs, corrupt officials, and predatory developers would be supported in any region of Russia. However, in Russia, it is understood that a revolt is always problematic, even if there is a valid reason.”
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What sparked protests over the Russian investment agreement?
1. The agreement grants Russian investors an eight-year exemption from customs duties on imported construction materials and equipment, as well as from property and profit taxes.
2. The value-added tax for investors will be reduced to just 5%, half the standard rate.
3. The Abkhazian government is required to prioritize investors covered by this agreement, listed in a special registry, by granting them preferential access to energy resources and connections to infrastructure and utilities.
4. Investors are allowed to use land allocated by the Abkhazian government as collateral for bank loans. Consequently, if an investor defaults, the bank could claim the land.
Opponents of the agreement argue that it will deal a severe blow to local businesses, which cannot compete with Russian companies under such conditions. Moreover, they believe the agreement poses a threat to the security of Abkhazia.
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