Political scientist on the invitation of NK Armenians to negotiations in Baku
Two attempts to advance to NK
“Units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces tried to move toward the heights adjacent to the Stepanakert-Lisagor dirt road . The advance has been prevented,” the Ministry of Defense of the unrecognized NKR reported on the morning of March 27.
On Saturday, the Azerbaijani military advanced deep into the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping forces. The authorities of the unrecognized republic regarded these actions as “an operation to aggravate the blockade, to tighten the ring around Nagorno-Karabakh.” Azerbaijan again invited “representatives of the Armenian community of Karabakh” to Baku “to discuss issues of reintegration and the implementation of infrastructure projects in Karabakh.”
According to political scientist Gurgen Simonyan, the invitation should be regarded as “an unsuccessful theatrical production.” The Karabakh Armenians refused the previous invitation. According to Simonyan, Azerbaijan wants to show the world that the Armenian side is not being constructive and “the only thing left is to rely on brute force.”
- The 100th day of the Lachin corridor blockade
- “The risk of an Armenian-Azerbaijani war has greatly decreased.” Opinion from Yerevan
- “Azerbaijan has intensified its military aggression against Armenia” – Freedom House
Advance on March 25
“The armed forces of Azerbaijan once again violated their obligations enshrined in the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020 by violating the line of contact fixed by the same document, in the Shushi-Lisagor section, and ensured a certain positional advance on the territory of Artsakh,” the Information Headquarters of NK reported.
The headquarters warned that the Azerbaijani authorities’ statement about the use of the Stepanakert-Gaibalishen-Lisagor mountain road for the transport of weapons and ammunition is only a pretext for “further aggressive and destructive actions”:
“On the same pretext, on March 5 the Azerbaijani Armed Forces shot and killed three policemen who were performing official duties.”
For several weeks now, there have been reports from Baku that this dirt road is allegedly being used for the transfer of weapons and military personnel from Armenia to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
NK replied that under the conditions of blockade, which began on December 12 last year, the road is used “for organizing civil and urgent communication between Stepanakert and four communities of the Shusha region.”
Then came information that Russian peacekeepers were also stationed at this height and actually control it. It was reported that “peacekeepers are negotiating with the Azerbaijani side to ensure their return to their original positions.” Nothing is known about the outcome of these negotiatikons.
“Measures are being taken to prevent escalation”
Until now official Yerevan has not reacted in any way to the events that took place on March 25 and 27.
The Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized republic issued a statement stressing that it expects “practical steps” from the Russian peacekeeping forces. It also states that “a unified tough position of the international community is imperatively required to force Azerbaijan to return to the legal field and fulfill its international obligations”:
“The international community, in particular the UN Security Council, needs to take concrete collective steps aimed at immediately opening the Lachin corridor [blocked since December 2022 by Azerbaijanis posing as environmental activists] and curbing Azerbaijan’s genocidal policy.”
The fact that there was a violation of the provisions of the tripartite statement of November 9, 2020, which put an end to the war in Karabakh, is stated both in this statement and in a message from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The daily bulletin of the Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in NK reports that after crossing the line of contact, the Azerbaijani unit “began to equip the post with engineering equipment”:
“The Azerbaijani side has been informed of the requirement to comply with the provisions of the tripartite agreements of the heads of state, take measures to stop engineering work and withdraw units of the national armed forces to their previously occupied positions.”
Proposal for a meeting in Baku
On March 27 the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan made a proposal to “representatives of the Armenian community of Karabakh” to hold a meeting in the first week of April in the city of Baku. The invitation states that “issues of reintegration” will be discussed.
At the end of February and beginning of March, two meetings with representatives of Azerbaijan took place. According to Armenian sources, the issues discussed were “not the political status of Artsakh, but exclusively of a humanitarian nature.” Azerbaijan presented the meetings as having to do with “reintegration”.
On March 13 representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh were also invited to meet in Baku. This proposal was rejected. The authorities of the unrecognized NKR said they were ready to meet with representatives of Azerbaijan to discuss humanitarian issues, but with the participation of Russian peacekeepers and not in Baku.
A comment
Political scientist Gurgen Simonyan believes that Azerbaijan intends to expel all Armenians from NK, and the long-term goal is the elimination of Armenian statehood.
He believes that the invitation to discuss issues of “reintegration” should be viewed as the formation of “moral grounds” for the start of aggressive actions in the region. But such an approach, according to the political scientist, is doomed to failure.
“We must not be inactive, we must clearly state that there is no mother country, and if you have honest intentions, then meet and discuss your issues in the zone controlled by Russian peacekeeping troops. And talk about what to do next, do not issue ultimatums,” he told JAMnews.
According to Simonyan, Azerbaijan “is strangling the socio-economic sphere,” and this process must be stopped by diplomatic efforts.
He says that the road passing through Lisagor was just a bypass dirt road, along which people sometimes managed to bypass the Lachin corridor. On the other hand, he emphasizes that under no item of the November 2020 statement is “the transport of weapons and ammunition excluded”:
“Even if weapons are transported, Azerbaijan has no right to demand a ban since the conflict is not resolved and people are facing an existential threat. Is there any way to ensure their physical safety?“
Speaking of the possible reaction of the international community, Simonyan notes that pressure is increasing dramatically. But he also adds that the international community does not have “major tools or leverage to bring to bear”:
“Only forces physically present in the region can speak the language of coercion. Of these, only the interests of Iran coincide with Armenia. I hope that in the near future Armenia will have the appropriate diplomatic resources and strength.”
Follow us – Twitter | Facebook | Instagram
Two attempts to advance to NK
