"There will be no peace treaty this year." Comment from Baku
Mehman Aliyev’s commentary on the peace treaty
“There will be no peace treaty this year,” Mehman Aliyev, director of the Turan news agency, has said. The establishment of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia should be expected next year, he believes, and until then military clashes may occur on the border and in Karabakh.
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What is hindering the peace process?
According Aliyev, Armenia “avoids signing a peace treaty and establishing relations.”
“All the attention of this country is devoted to creating a confrontation between Azerbaijan and Russia, as well as the West. They think that in this way they can achieve steps in favor of Yerevan. Armenia is also trying to ensure that the part of Karabakh where the Armenian population lives is not included in the concept of recognizing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. All this hinders the progress of the peace process,” Aliyev said.
Nikol Pashinyan‘s statements on recognizing Azerbaijan’s sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders are “nothing more than rhetoric,” the journalist adds. “I start from the real steps and the course of the process itself,” he said.
Russian policy in the region
“Russia does not intend to openly support Armenia. The Kremlin simply wants to take advantage of the current situation and get closer to Azerbaijan.
This may explain the recent visit of Russian Prime Minister Mishustin to Baku. For Moscow, it is now important to strengthen economic ties.”
And despite the statements of some political scientists about the creation of the Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran triangle, he does not see such a trend at present.
Alyiev also disagrees with those who argue the pro-Armenian spirit of Vladimir Putin‘s statements during the Valdai Forum:
“He hinted that there are Washington and Moscow options on Karabakh. The Washington version does not provide for any status for the Karabakh Armenians. And he told the Armenians: if you want, agree with that option.
After that speech, Pashinyan announced that Russian peacekeepers should stay in Karabakh for another twenty years, and a pro-Russian rally was organized in Khankendi [Armenians call this city Stepanakert – JAMnews]. And in Sochi, Armenians were told to take care of yourselves, because the conditions of the tripartite statement of November 10, 2020 must be met.”
Mehman Aliyev believes that Putin’s steps showed “the true face of the leadership of Armenia”:
“Before that, the Armenians said that the Putin-Aliyev-Erdogan trinity is against us, Moscow is acting in concert with Baku, etc. They tried to connect us with Russia. And this was done against the backdrop of Russian aggression in Ukraine. In other words, they tried to show us as allies of Russia, although Azerbaijan is neither a member of the CSTO nor a member of the EAEU. Being an ally of Russia, they tried to portray us in this capacity.
After Putin’s well-known speech, it became clear that Armenia is Russia’s ally. Yerevan does not want the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region. Armenia is trying to take advantage of Russia’s positions for its own purposes. In fact, the West saw the true state of affairs.”
Mehman Aliyev’s commentary on the peace treaty
What is Iran seeking?
Azerbaijan’s position is obvious, Mehman Aliyev maintains.
“Baku claims that its territorial integrity must be restored, and Karabakh is an integral part of the country.
Azerbaijan rejects all other options, and this in my opinion is an open, decisive and fair position. Neither Russia nor the United States opposes this approach, only France does.
With regard to Iran, they openly declare the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Relations between Baku and Tehran have always been based on the recognition of each other’s sovereignty,” Aliyev said.
Everything is decided in Ukraine
“Now everything is decided in Ukraine. After the war, the authority of the West in our region will increase. And this is a positive development. I believe that in 2023 we can expect positive changes both in regional politics and in domestic.
First, the role of the West will increase globally in our region.
Second, there will be a peace process going on, which is a very important factor.
Third, we will witness democratic changes inside Azerbaijan,” Aliyev believes.
What will happen next?
According to Aliyev, military clashes are possible in the near future:
“They will have the character of peace enforcement. If Armenia’s position does not change, this is quite possible.
In fact, this has happened several times since the 2020 44-day war. Azerbaijan carried out three such operations — twice in Karabakh, once in the border zone with Armenia.
International players are also interested in such operations. They want a quick solution to the issue. But for now, Armenia is hindering this process.”
Mehman Aliyev believes that the peace treaty will not be signed by the end of this year:
“In fact, from December 15 the entire civilized world goes on vacation. Now Armenia is plying for time. In Yerevan they think they have still lost, they will delay the process a little, hoping something will change.
A peace treaty is likely to be signed next year. It will happen.”
Mehman Aliyev’s commentary on the peace treaty
