Erdogan's party suffered a major defeat. How did it happen?
The results of the municipal elections in Turkey
On March 31, municipal elections were held in Turkey. Traditionally, during the pre-election period, more attention was paid to economic, ideological, and political issues rather than municipal and city management. The main focus was on the elections in Istanbul and Ankara municipalities, which Erdogan lost in 2019. He was determined to regain control of these cities for his party.
However, the election results turned out to be unexpected for everyone, and the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won for the first time since 1977, becoming the leading party in Turkey. At the same time, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered its first defeat since its inception.
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Winning with 37.76% of the votes nationwide, the CHP emerged victorious in major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya, Eskisehir, and Adana. Opposition members from the CHP will also lead municipalities in conservative cities like Bursa, Balikesir, Kastamonu, Giresun, and even in Adiyaman, where the AKP had previously won in past elections.
How did this happen?
Everyone is wondering: how did Erdogan suffer the biggest defeat in his political career just 10 months after triumphing in the presidential elections?
One of the key factors behind this election outcome, according to experts, is the Party of the New Welfare (YRP), which has same roots as Erdogan’s party. YRP supported the current president in the previous elections.
The Party of the New Welfare was founded and is led by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Necmettin Erbakan, Erdogan’s political mentor. In yesterday’s elections, YRP received 6.2% of the votes, making it the third party in Turkey.
YRP accuses the AKP of deviating from the principles declared at the establishment of this party and of capitulating to neoliberal and globalist policies.
Shortly before the elections, journalist Metin Cihan published an article exposing the trade cooperation between Turkey and Israel, presenting data on dozens of ships that depart daily from Turkish ports to Israel, which caused a major resonance in society.
Erbakan accused Erdogan of being ineffective in standing up to Israel, saying he forgot about the Palestinians. Additionally, YRP turned the issues of addressing pensioner problems, considered the most conservative part of the electorate, into the main focus of their pre-election campaign, which predetermined the unexpected success of the nascent party and contributed to the defeat of the AKP.
The economic policy as the reason for the failure
Another significant reason for the ruling party’s loss is considered to be the AKP’s economic policy.
This thesis is somewhat controversial because the economic situation in Turkey before the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections was no better than it is now, but Erdogan managed to maintain his advantage.
Here, critics focus mainly on the return to the neoliberal, orthodox economic policy recommended by the IMF to get out of the economic crisis after the 2023 elections.
With the arrival of Mehmet Şimşek, who was appointed as the Minister of Economy in the new cabinet, the AKP, which introduced an economic crisis policy similar to the IMF program, was forced to implement the “austerity policies”.
Economist and academician Ilhan Doğuş was one of the people who paid the most attention to this issue from the beginning.
After yesterday’s elections, economist Ilhan Doğuş wrote on his Twitter page that what caused the opposition to lose last year was its support for the “austerity policies”. This year, when AKP applied the same policy, AKP lost this time.
Economist academician Tansel Güçlü also writes: “Whoever supports the austerity policy and stands against the broad masses of workers, will get very bad results in the elections. In the future, they should act taking these circumstances into account.”
According to economist Ali Alper Alemdar, the AKP lost due to the recommendations of orthodox economists: “I hope that in the future, the ruling party will continue to listen to these specialists.”
For a long time, Erdogan pursued an economic policy that was heavily criticized worldwide. He kept the interest rate low, turned a blind eye to the rise in the value of the US dollar, and printed money without considering the subsequent inflation.
As a result, the situation worsened further, the middle class faced economic difficulties, but at the same time, pensions in the country increased, and unemployment remained low.
However, starting in the summer of 2023, when the government began implementing orthodox economic policies, the interest rate significantly increased, money was printed in smaller quantities, and the growth of pensions and civil servant salaries slowed down compared to previous rates.
Economists believe that this factor was the reason for the AKP’s defeat.
Nationalists’ defeat
The most unexpected outcome of the municipal elections was the sharp decline in votes for the far-right forces, which were believed to be on the rise.
İYİ Parti (Good Party) and Zafer Partisi (Victory Party), which adhere to nationalist and anti-immigration ideas, suffered significant losses in votes. İYİ Parti received 3.7% of the votes compared to 9% in the previous elections. Zafer Partisi settled for only 1.74%.
According to journalist Ruşen Çakır, the myth of the rise of nationalist forces has been debunked. Together, they couldn’t even secure 10% of all votes.
However, political analyst Yaşar Altundag disagrees with this view. He believes it is wrong to think that nationalist ideas have weakened, and such thoughts could harm the opposition. Nationalists have always lost in municipal elections but have great potential in “setting boundaries” between nationalism and non-nationalism, as well as in creating an image of the enemy.
Thus, the main figures of the opposition – Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş – retained their positions in Istanbul and Ankara, respectively. İmamoğlu outpaced his opponent from the ruling party by 12%, and Yavaş by 29%.
After these elections, the psychological advantage in the political struggle has completely shifted to the side of the opposition. Now everyone is wondering whether the CHP can maintain this advantage until the next elections and what policies İmamoğlu and Yavaş, whose authority is already comparable to that of Erdoğan himself, will pursue in the coming years.
