"Baku forcing new concessions from Yerevan": view on the latest escalation
Shelling of Armenian positions
In the morning, the Armenian Ministry of Defense issued a statement reporting that units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces had opened fire from small arms towards Armenian positions near the settlement of Nerkin Hand. The statement indicated that four soldiers were killed and one was wounded in the incident.
Baku stated that they conducted “Revenge” operation in response to “yesterday’s provocation by the Armenian Armed Forces” in the Kapan-Zangilan section. According to the Azerbaijani side, an Azerbaijani border guard was injured due to shelling from the Armenian Armed Forces.
An investigation into this incident has been initiated in Armenia. The military police stated, “If this circumstance is confirmed, the perpetrators will be brought to justice.” However, Baku did not await the results and proceeded with a punitive operation. In light of this, Armenian politicians asserted that “the Azerbaijani authorities simply needed a pretext.”
According to political observer Hakob Badalyan, Baku continues to leverage the use of force and seeks to extract political concessions from Armenia. He does not rule out the possibility that Azerbaijan “will persist in military operations to address specific issues and capture additional positions.”
The day before, Baku reported not only that an Azerbaijani border guard was wounded but also that on February 12, units of the Armenian Armed Forces opened fire on positions in the northeastern part of the border. Yerevan responded that this information “does not correspond to reality.”
“Azerbaijan is looking for pretexts for escalation on the border“
The Armenian Ministry of Defense reports that on February 13, from 05:30 to 09:30, units of the Azerbaijani armed forces fired at Armenian positions near the village of Nerkin Hand. Initially, it was reported that two Armenian soldiers were killed, but later, it was confirmed that four people died. The wounded man’s condition is moderate.
The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the incident as “another provocation” by the Azerbaijani armed forces.
Commenting on the information received the night before from Baku and the morning military operation, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced:
“This indicates that Azerbaijan is looking for pretexts for escalation on the border. […] We strongly condemn these actions of Azerbaijan resorting to military provocations, we call to refrain from steps that destabilize the situation and return to negotiations. Once again, we reaffirm the proposals previously voiced by the Armenian side to implement reliable measures aimed at increasing border security.”
Тhere are no conscripts among the killed
“Some of the bodies of those killed have already been taken out, and there are no conscripts among them,” said Andranik Kocharyan, head of the parliamentary commission on defense and security, to reporters.
According to the deputy, the victims, aged between 40 and 67, are all members of the Yerkrapah Volunteer Union:
“The volunteers were stationed on guard duty, and a situation arose where the shooting began, resulting in casualties and one wounded individual. The official investigation will determine the legality of the shelling.”
“They were targeted from positions within Armenia’s sovereign territory”
Former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan asserted that Armenian military personnel came under fire from Azerbaijani positions situated on the sovereign territory of Armenia:
“They were targeted from positions within Armenia’s sovereign territory, where they [Azerbaijani armed forces] had previously encroached. Any presence of Azerbaijani military near Armenian settlements or along inter-settlement roads is unlawful and criminal.”
Tatoyan underscored that the Azerbaijani side is exhibiting “unrestrained behavior.” He viewed all peace-related statements from Baku as “false declarations” amid deep-seated animosity towards Armenians and the propagation of enmity.
“The criminal acts carried out by Azerbaijan must be stopped”
Armenian Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Marukyan wrote on his X page:
“First, Azerbaijan declares that there was fire from the Armenian side, as if there was a wounded person, then the Armenian side declares that it will investigate the incident, and the Azerbaijani side attacks and kills and injures people without waiting for any investigation, thus showing that they were prepared for an attack and were just looking for a cause.
Thus, it is obvious that Azerbaijan does not give up its “traditional” criminal, aggressive behavior and first spreads unchecked, one sided, fake news as if there was a shooting from the Armenian side, and then carries out a ready-made operation in the sovereign territory of Armenia, killing and distorting new lives.
This chain of criminal acts carried out by Azerbaijan must be stopped. The international community must condemn this chain of vile unprovoked actions carried out by Azerbaijan and call Azerbaijan to withdraw its occupational forces from more than 215 square kilometres of sovereign territory of Armenia, which is an aggression by virtue and provocation against Armenia.”
Comment
According to political observer Hakob Badalyan, the Azerbaijani side is attempting to coerce Yerevan into making political concessions by leveraging the threat of force:
“Azerbaijan is seeking to capitalize on the current international climate and exploit its military superiority for political gain. To accomplish this, it applies pressure on Armenia either through direct military action or by employing the threat of force.”
The analyst believes that Baku aims to secure concessions that would significantly bolster its position in political negotiations with Armenia and with stakeholders invested in the Caucasus region. These concessions extend beyond the provisions outlined in the peace agreement with Armenia:
“They are directly or indirectly linked to the broader Caucasian agenda, of which the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is a central component.”
Badalyan warns against being misled by the “lulls observed at the border,” suggesting that despite a prolonged period of calm, there has been no significant change in the situation. He recalls that before the 44-day war of 2020, the Azerbaijani side also maintained a similar pause for some time.
Regarding the morning incident and the potential reaction from the international community, Badalyan notes that “managing and containing Baku is a difficult task” due to varying interests among different centers and Azerbaijan’s adeptness in exploiting these differences.
He suggests that the international community has essentially left Armenia and Azerbaijan to navigate negotiations “one on one” to avoid bearing responsibility. According to Badalyan, international partners are attempting to distance themselves to evade accountability for potential tensions:
“Under these circumstances, it would be extremely naive to believe that there is an international community capable of assessing Azerbaijan’s actions and rebuking them.”
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Shelling of Armenian positions
