“Baku is trying to change the status quo”: opinion from Yerevan
Sabotage in NK
“By promoting a narrative about the transportation of weapons from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku is trying to push for the demilitarization of Artsakh, or rather the disbandment of the Defense Army,” political scientist Suren Surenyants said, commenting on the March 5 shootout in which three policemen of Armenian descent were killed.
In his opinion, in this way Azerbaijan is also testing the viability of the Russian peacekeeping mission and the reaction of the international community, knowing there will be no resistance.
The day before, a message was received from the unrecognized NKR about “sabotage of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the territory of Artsakh.” Baku stated that they were trying to prevent “the transfer of weapons, mines and manpower from Armenia.” The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry also demanded the “immediate withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces.” Armenian experts consider this a demand to liquidate the defense army of the unrecognized republic, since there are no Armenian military units in NK.
On the morning of March 5, information was received that “an Azerbaijani sabotage group fired at a car transporting passport control police of NK” The incident took place in an area called Hypalu. Three policemen were killed, one was wounded in the chest. Azerbaijan has officially announced two casualties. Despite the fact that Russian peacekeepers arrived almost immediately, the Russian Defense Ministry did not report the incident in its bulletin until the evening of March 6.
- Shootout in Karabakh; casualties reported
- “Integration with Azerbaijan is out of the question.” Opinion on contacts between Baku and NK Armenians
- “Azerbaijan is at a dead end” – Speaker of the Armenian Parliament on the blockade of NK
Incident details
The authorities of the unrecognized republic called statements from Azerbaijan about the transfer of weapons from Armenia “false and deceitful.” The local police released a video of the incident and the route of the car, announcing that the officers were “heading from Stepanakert to their shift in the Shushi region.”
“First, there were no weapons in the car, except for the officers’ service weapons. Second, there could be no weapons from Armenia, since the car was coming from Stepanakert, not the Republic of Armenia,” the report says.
Another video provided by the media shows Azerbaijani soldiers “approaching the car, opening the door, shooting again and running back.”
“Even a child can understand that this is a lie”
Referring to a video released by the police, former State Minister Artak Beglaryan said that “the false claims of the Azerbaijani authorities are so primitive and unfounded that even a child can understand that this is a lie.”
According to him, the video refutes not only the claim about the transfer of weapons, but also information from Baku that the police were the first to open fire:
“You can see how the Azerbaijani soldiers are shooting from afar, then approaching, shooting inside the car again. It is clearly seen that only on the way back, when they retreat, are they fired upon from our combat position. Therefore, the statements of the Azerbaijanis that the Artsakh side was the first to open fire are also false.”
Beglaryan recalled that the International Court of Justice rejected Azerbaijan’s claim that Armenia be ordered to “stop mining and transporting mines through the Lachin corridor.” The Hague court found that Azerbaijan did not provide sufficient evidence.
“Aliyev’s dictatorial regime must be punished by the international community for this and previous crimes, including the blockade, otherwise they increase the level of aggression and prepare to commit new and even more cruel crimes against humanity and the people of Artsakh,” Beglaryan believes.
Comment
According to political scientist Suren Surenyants, Azerbaijan is taking advantage of a mistake by the Armenian authorities – separating the Nagorno-Karabakh problem from the process of resolving Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.
“And since the so-called Stepanakert-Baku international dialogue mechanism has not been created, Azerbaijan is trying to act from the toughest positions so that the Karabakh issue is considered to the maximum extent as its internal issue,” he told JAMnews.
Surenyants believes that Baku is continuing its narrative about the “transportation of weapons and mines” even after two ECHR decisions forbidding this activity because:
“International law is in crisis, the decision of the court will face many obstacles on the way to implementation and, in fact, will remain on paper. There are no visible mechanisms for enforcing the court’s decision.
While within states there are clear mechanisms that regulate such relations, for example the service for the execution of judicial acts, in international relations this role is conditionally filled by the UN Security Council. But if Armenia now turns to the Security Council, there will be no consensus because of the confrontation between the West and Russia.”
Surenyants notes that as a result of the Ukrainian war, Moscow’s capabilities have been significantly limited, and Baku is trying to take advantage of this and “change the post-war status quo” defined by the November 9, 2020 statement.
“I think that after the opening of the Lachin corridor, and the corridor will someday be opened, we will, unfortunately, have a direct or indirect Azerbaijani presence there in the form of a roadblock or X-ray equipment, which, of course, contradicts the tripartite statement.”
Surenyants does not consider what happened on March 5 a mere incident. According to him, it was “a bloody provocation, accompanied by human casualties.” He believes that things will not come to large-scale military action, but “Azerbaijani pressure will intensify.” According to Surenyants, Baku is trying to advance its agenda prior to talks, namely “to establish a checkpoint and to disband the NK Defense Army.”
He does not expect Baku’s actions to be followed by an international reaction in the form of sanctions:
“Aliyev is considered a “supplier” of security for the Euro-Atlantic community, given that Azerbaijan is anEU energy partner until at least 2027.”
Surenyants believes that in the current situation, Armenia should:
- change the negotiation logic and not separate the Nagorno-Karabakh problem from the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations,
- go back to the negotiation process.
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Sabotage in NK
