Which is worse: a Ukrainian missile or Putin's wrath? Opinion on the establishment of a Russian military base in Abkhazia

Russian military base in Abkhazia

Vladimir Zelenskyy said that Ukraine will not refrain from attacking Russian warships in Abkhazia and that any other reaction from Kiev could hardly be expected. However, consent of the Abkhazian authorities to deployment of the Black Sea Fleet in the port of Ochamchira was also the only possible option. For Abkhazia simply has no other ally but Russia.

“The position taken by our ally is very important here. In this issue we are acting as a united front. Peace and war are issues that never leave the agenda of our bilateral contacts. That is why the naval logistics base will be deployed in the port of Ochamchira, because it corresponds to our interests,” Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania said last week, prior to Zelenskyy’s threats.

I don’t think that Sukhum failed to calculate Kiev’s reaction. The leadership of the republic clearly understood that with the Russian navy off the coast of Abkhazia there is a real risk that Ochamchira will become a target for Ukrainian drones at least. But the Abkhazian authorities could not do otherwise.

• Ukrainian intelligence: Russia moves part of military fleet from Crimea to Abkhazia
• Russian naval base in Abkhazia: “This is a guarantor of security, and the decision was not made today”
• “Why Abkhazia does not face the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh?” Opinion

Yes, of course, Aslan Bzhania had a hypothetical opportunity to say “no” — even personally to Vladimir Putin during their meeting in early October in Sochi. But in the current situation, it would have sounded like unspeakable stupidity and would have had very serious consequences.

What is worse: the risk that from time to time a Ukrainian drone will fly to Ochamchira or the Kremlin turns its back on Abkhazia?

If Abkhazia refused Russia, it would at best lose financial support and Russian tourists. This would be a disaster for the republic.

And one does not even want to think about what could happen in the worst case – in a global storm anything can happen to Abkhazia (as, for example, in Nagorno-Karabakh).

In general, Bzhania could not refuse Putin even if Ukrainian drones were bombing Ochamchira every day.

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